Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
Prayers to everyone in Jamaica, and all affected by Melissa!
STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   13*
TOTAL HURRICANES:          5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4
* (12 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Melissa is forecast to become extratropical later today.

Elsewhere, I continue to monitor an ill defined tropical wave just crossing the Lesser Antilles.  
CATL TROPICAL WAVE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY



The wave is currently under 15 – 20 kts of shear, and water vapor imagery indicates somewhat of a dry surrounding environment.  Based on analysis of the ECMWF global model, both TPW and 500 mb relative humidity are forecast to increase to favorable values, along with a decrease in wind shear and an indication of a developing radial shear pattern near Puerto Rico.  Based on the lack of a well defined wind pattern which would define a strong tropical wave, I am not looking for any development to occur at the moment.  Models do not indicate any development of low pressure from this wave as well.  I will however continue to monitor this over the next 48 hours for any changes to the forecast pattern.
RECENT OCEANSAT PASS

ECMWF PWAT, 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND SHEAR FORECAST  36 HOURS



Elsewhere, analysis of 850 mb forecast maps indicate the CAG (Central American Gyre) may become active in a few days.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability map has been consistent in the past few days in a possible probability of development.  The probability has lowered slightly, and forecast conditions appear to be less favorable for development for the probability forecast period, based on the presence of direr air in the forecast. I will monitor this during the next few days for any significant changes.  Satellite loop imagery does show some activity of the CAG at the moment, however this would not be the feature in the cyclone probability at the moment.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 72 – 120 hours

ECMWF POSITION FORECAST 

ECMWF WIND SHEAR, MID LEVEL RH, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST



CENTRAL AMERICA SATELLITE LOOP

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS