Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
The forecast center is closed on Sunday’s.

As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL risk for severe thunderstorms.  The current discussion indicates a probability of a SLIGHT risk outline on DAY 5, Wed. MAR. 04 as indicated by the 15% outline.  The MLP modeling has been consistent, and indicates there could be a probability for severe storms from Tue. through Sat. of next week.  This is not absolute, and will depend EXACTLY on the atmospheric setup.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

CSU – MLP DAY 5 PROBABILITY

NSSL ML DAY 5 PROBABILITY

CSU – MLP 6 PANEL PROBABILITIES
CURRENT DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MARGINAL risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 1 Outlook:  ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR OUTLOOK TEXT)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
CSU – MLP DAY 1 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NSSL ML DAY 1 PROBABILITY


DAY1 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

SPC DISCUSSION EXCERPT:
…Central/Southern Florida Peninsula…
Late morning surface analysis places a cold front near the I-4 corridor across the central portion of the Peninsula, with upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints south of the boundary. A mid-level vorticity maximum over MS/AL this morning is forecast to continue east-southeastward through the base of a larger-scale eastern US trough and eventually reach the Gulf Stream east of GA and southwestward to the southern 1/3 of the Peninsula by early Sunday morning. As this impulse progresses towards the region, the aforementioned front will slowly move south. This boundary, a residual outflow boundary, and an east-coast sea breeze will help focus thunderstorm development and a potential severe risk this afternoon. Ample heating of the moist boundary layer beneath a weak cap, which will continue to erode by early to mid afternoon, will result in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level flow will likely remain veered and relatively weak, but 30+ kt shear in the 700-300 mb layer will support some updraft organization. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the 18-20z period with a some of the stronger storms potentially being capable of 55-65 mph gusts and 1 to 1.75 inch diameter hail. Short-term CAM guidance suggests the most concentrated corridor for severe may extend from the north side of Lake Okeechobee, where an agitated cumulus field is developing along the diffuse outflow boundary, southward into Broward/Palm Beach counties. Convection is forecast to eventually move east into the Atlantic this evening with the severe risk diminishing.

The NADOCAST site for tornado and hail probabilities was not available.  

Based on my analysis of the severe weather indices, the forecast seems t0 call for a moderately unstable atmosphere at the moment.  Indices and current SPC outlook indicate severe thunderstorms may be possible from mid afternoon  the early evening, into the evening hours. The main severe risk as of analysis this morning appears to be isolated hail, some possibly reaching severe levels based on lifted indices, bulk shear and CAPE values within the 5% HAIL outline, and damaging thunderstorm winds / gusts.  CAPE values are in the moderately unstable range.  The tornado risk  is currently low at the moment.  Although the EHI values would tend to indicate some weak tornado activity, 0 – 3km Storm Relative Helicity values are weak.  IF any tornado activity were to occur, it would most likely be in the form of an isolated, weak tornado, or possibly a waterspout.

Based on analysis of model animations, the current outlook, and analysis of indices, the strongest convection and indices should occur approximately between 2:00 P.M. EST – 7:00 P.M. EST. Rain and general thunderstorms could initiate by 1:00 P.M EST, possibly lasting well into the evening.  Please visit the SPC homepage via the link provided for any changes to the forecast today.
CAPE VALUES FORECAST

DEW POINT FORECAST

Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, HRRR 3KM, CIPS DETERMINISTIC, and SPC SREF model guidance.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning, and lie within the MARGINAL risk 5% HAIL outline.  Bear in mind, MAXIMUM indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 1500- 2500 j/kg-1                  
MLCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg-1                   
MUCAPE: 1500 – 2500 j/kg-1                
SRH 0 -1 km: <50 – 125 m2/s2               
SRH 0 -3 km: 75 – 150 m2/s2        
SRH EFFECTIVE: <100 m2/s2          
L. I.: -3 to -6                                                  
SCP: 0.0 – 4.0                                          
STP: 0.0 – 0.8
0 -6 km SHEAR: 35 kts – 50 kts                  
EFF. SHEAR: 30 kts – 40 kts                        
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 5.5C – 6.0C   
DEWPOINT: 66F – 70F                                    
EHI: 0.7 – 1.6                                     
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 46C – 47C                     
K INDEX: 28C to 35C                                          
SWEAT INDEX: 250 – 300                         
THOMPSON INDEX: 31 to 41      
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 10,000 – 20,000    

CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m² s^-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM 3KM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. EST FEB. 28 – 10:00 P.M. EST FEB. 28

NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. EST FEB. 28 – 10:00 P.M. EST FEB. 28

NAM 3KM RADAR SIMULATION 1:00 P.M. EST FEB. 28 – 10:00 P.M. EST FEB. 28

Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFE AND STURDY SHELTER!
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view forecasts, any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST