Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

I will be out of the office after 11:00 a.m. today.  Since things are pretty much status quo in the tropics, and I have prayer Chaplin business to attend to, I may not issue a tropical update today.

I have concluded, by issuing severe weather outlooks during hurricane season, is not plausible.  This will be the only severe forecast this season.  In order to accomplish both, it takes approximately 5 – 6 hours of analysis and calculations.  Exceptions may be made for an ENHANCED risk or higher.  Or, another option is, if we have no imminent threat with a tropical system or AOI, then a severe weather forecast can be issued if a risk is present.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 1 Outlook: FROM THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail may occur.

SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR FULL OUTLOOK TEXT)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.  
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
The following is the current CSU – MLP severe weather forecast map:
CSU – MLP DAY 1 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

DAY 1 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

SPC DISCUSSION 
Given the length of the discussion, an excerpt would not suffice.  Please click on the link for the full SPC discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

The following maps are from NADOCAST and indicate the probability of tornadoes and significant tornadoes (SIGTOR)
NADOCAST TORNADO PROBABILITY (LINKED)

NADOCAST SIGTOR PROBABILITY (LINKED)

Based on my analysis of the severe weather indices, the forecast calls for a MARGINALLY to borderline MODERATELY unstable atmosphere.  Indices indicate all severe threats are probable.  Strong thunderstorm winds and gusts are expected given the DCAPE values of 500+.  Analysis, of SRH and EHI values, along with current forecast CAPE values indicate tornado activity may have the best probability with the strongest cells within the current 5% tornado risk outline, and close to the SW portion of the 2% outline 

Based on the values analyzed, I am not expecting any strong tornado activity.  Any tornadoes that may develop should remain weak (EF0 – EF1).  Based on analysis of model animations and the current outlook, strong storm initiation could occur by mid day (1:00 P.M. CDT), with the strongest cells and severe indices occurring between approximately 4:00 P.M. CDT – 7:00 P.M. CDT. 

Earlier in the afternoon, storms should be supercell in nature, and as the forecast gets into the evening and overnight hours, we may see more of a QLCS mode (Linear)

Regarding the severe indices and EHI values for this synopsis, the minimum value will pertain to indices in the 2% tornado risk outline and maximum values in the  5% tornado risk outline.  

Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, HRRR 3KM, and SPC SREF model guidance.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning.  Bear in mind, indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 750 – 2000 j/kg-1                  
MLCAPE: 500 – 2000 j/kg-1                   
MUCAPE: 750 – 2500 j/kg-1                
SRH 0 -1 km: 50 – 150 m2/s2               
SRH 0 -3 km: 100 – 200 m2/s2        
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 150 m2/s2          
L. I.: -2 to -6                                                      
SCP: 2 – 6                                                 
STP: 1.0 – 2.4    
0 -6 km SHEAR: 40 kts – 50 kts                  
EFF. SHEAR: 30 kts – 40 kts                        
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5C – 7.0C   
DEWPOINT: 63F – 71F                                    
EHI: 0.5- 1.7                                                     
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 46C – 47C                        
K INDEX: 29C – 35C                                          
SWEAT INDEX: 250 – 320                              
THOMPSON INDEX: 31 – 41                      
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 10,000 – 30,000      

CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m² s^-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM 3KM and HRRR 3KM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CDT OCT. 18 – 1:00 A.M. CDT OCT. 19

NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CDT OCT. 18 – 1:00 A.M. CDT OCT. 19

HRRR 3KM SCP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CDT OCT. 18 – 1:00 A.M. CDT OCT. 19

HRRR 3KM STP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CDT OCT. 18 – 1:00 A.M. CDT OCT. 19

Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, SEEK SAFE AND STURDY SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST