Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

As we enter into the Atlantic Hurricane Season (June 01), forecasts will transition over to Tropical Weather.  Severe weather updates will still be issued for SLIGHT risks and above, only until the Hurricane Season begins to pick up.  IF severe weather is not pressing, then I will be tracking Tropical Waves. 

Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.

The forecast center is closed on Sunday’s.  Please visit this site on Sunday in order to access SPC products for any severe weather threat.

The Storm Prediction Center indicates a MARGINAL risk for severe thunderstorms for Wed. and a SLIGHT risk forecast for Fri. 

The following graphics are linked to their outlooks:
DAY 2 OUTLOOK:

DAY 3 OUTLOOK:

SPC DAY 4 – 8 OUTLOOK: 

IF 1300Z SPC DAY 1 outlook graphics are utilized, please check the SPC site for any updates to the outline risks when they are issued.  The next update is issued at 1630Z (12:30 p.m. EDT) 

CURRENT DAY1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY1 Outlook: FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH…OHIO VALLEY…AND LOWER GREAT LAKES…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. A greater threat for large to very large hail should exist across parts of west-central Texas.

1300Z SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR OUTLOOK TEXT)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched area: a 10% or greater probability of  EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched area: a 10% or greater probability of 2.0 inch diameter or larger hail within 25 miles of a point 
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched area: a 10% or greater probability of 65 kt+ winds within 25 miles of a point

CSU – MLP DAY 1 AND 2 FORECAST PROBABILITIES (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)
NSSL ML DAY 1 PROBABILITY

CSU – MLP 6 PANEL PROBABILITIES DAY 3 – DAY 8 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)


DAY 1 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

SPC DISCUSSION EXCERPT:
…Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley…
Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across central/eastern OK into northwest AR and southern MO. Most of this activity is occurring along and north of a southward-moving cold front, and should therefore pose a limited severe risk in the short term. Eventual regeneration along the cold front and/or strengthening of ongoing activity should occur later today across TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. Mid-level flow is forecast to remain fairly modest, and deep-layer shear for most areas will tend to be marginal. Still, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass will support moderate to strong instability along/ahead of the front by early afternoon. Scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with loosely organized clusters and bowing line segments. This wind threat may continue to the TX/LA Coast this evening/overnight. Some potential for supercells should also exist across parts of west-central TX and vicinity, where steeper mid-level lapse rates and greater instability is forecast to be in place. Large hail appears possible with any supercells that can be sustained, and isolated 2+ inch diameter hail may occur. With time this evening, this convection may also grow upscale into a bowing cluster and pose a greater severe wind risk.

…Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast…
Stronger instability should be present this afternoon across the OH Valley, but greater deep-layer shear may tend to remain mostly displaced farther north. Even so, some thunderstorm organization should occur, with multicells and bowing line segments possible. Scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat, although isolated hail could occur with the strongest cores. This convection should spread into the lower Great Lakes by mid to late evening, before eventually weakening across the Northeast late tonight. A separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across parts of New England, and also pose a threat for mainly occasional damaging winds.

The following maps are from NADOCAST for tornado and hail probabilities.  Click each image for a larger view.  
12Z NADOCAST TORNADO PROBABILITY

12Z NADOCAST SIGTOR PROBABILITY

12Z NADOCAST HAIL PROBABILITY

12Z NADOCAST SIGHAIL PROBABILITY

Based on my analysis this morning, the current forecast severe weather indices call for a moderately to extremely unstable atmosphere within the SLIGHT risk outline over Texas, and the 15%  HATCHED HAIL OUTLINE.  The main severe risk as of analysis this morning is the possibility of damaging thunderstorm winds / gusts, in excess of  LARGE to VERY LARGE hail, and the possibility of  TORNADOES.  The tornado risk is at 2% over portions of the SLIGHT risk area.  Any tornadoes that occur should be weak (EF0 – EF1)

The hatched areas you occasionally see in the graphics are referred to as a CIG (Conditional Intensity Grouping), and is explained in the links below:

The following is from the SPC and NWS explaining this feature:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/
https://www.weather.gov/news/262402-spc

Based on analysis of mainly model animations, current radar, the current outlook, and analysis of indices, the strongest storms and indices should occur approximately between early afternoon through late evening.  Please visit the SPC homepage via the link provided for any changes to the forecast today.
CAPE VALUES FORECAST

DEW POINT FORECAST

Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, HRRR 3KM, CIPS DETERMINISTIC, and SPC SREF model guidance.

REGARDING EHI VALUES: While EHI values are calculated utilizing MLCAPE and 0 – 3 km SRH values (MLCAPE x 0 – 3 km SRH /160,000) FOR SUPERCELL development, MLCAPE and 0 -1 km SRH are used for tornado development.  The highest SRH values do not always fall within ample, highest MLCAPE values for the best probability of tornado activity. Supercell EHI values should be regarded as to how strong supercells may become, and not the reference of tornado intensities listed.  Tornadic EHI should be used to determine the probable strength of any tornadoes.  I utilize the SRH and MLCAPE values over the area that has the highest tornado risk potential.  Maximum EHI values are calculated within the area(s) that have the greatest probability for tornado activity.  

If there is a lack of sufficient 0 – 1 km SRH, effective (EFF.) SRH will be used in calculation of tornadic EHI.  From research: (Effective Layer SRH: Recent research suggests using “effective layer” SRH (usually 1250-2250m AGL) as a superior substitute for 0-1 km SRH, as it better represents the inflow layer for supercells).

EHI INDICES are for the guidelines listed above.  Listed indices will always pertain to the area(s) located within the highest SPC risk outlines, based mainly on SBCAPE indices, and / or regarding a higher tornado potential, should multiple severe risk areas appear in the SPC forecast.  Although certain indices may appear stronger on a forecast map, given the lack of other indices does not contribute to the overall severe risk.  Bear in mind, MAXIMUM indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis.

Indices listed this morning will pertain mainly to the the area of Texas, where SBCAPE values range was the highest.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning within the SLIGHT risk outline and the 15% HATCHED HAIL OUTLINE:  
SBCAPE: 2000 – 4500 j/kg-1                  
MLCAPE: 1000 – 4000 j/kg-1                   
MUCAPE: 1500 – 4000 j/kg-1                
SRH 0 -1 km: <100 – 225 m2/s2               
SRH 0 -3 km: 225 – 350 m2/s2        
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 200 m2/s2          
L. I.: -7 to -12                                              
SCP: 2 – 8…………..3 – 7 (OH. VALLEY / NE)                                   
STP: 0.0 – 0.7……..0.2 – 0.9 (OH. VALLEY / NE)
0 -6 km SHEAR: 30 kts – 40 kts                  
EFF. SHEAR: 30 kts – 40 kts                        
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 8.0C – 9.0C 
DEWPOINT: 65F – 76F                                   
SUPERCELL EHI : 2.2 – 4.2……..1.2 – 2.5 (OH. VALLEY / NE)
TORNADIC EHI : 0.9 – 1.4……….0.8 – 1.3 (OH. VALLEY / NE)                          
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 59C……50C (OH. VALLEY / NE)            
K INDEX: 22C to 42C                                          
SWEAT INDEX: 595 – 625………..515 – 575 (OH. VALLEY / NE)                   
THOMPSON INDEX: 35 to 48   
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 10,000 – 70,000……..10,000 – 30,000 (OH. VALLEY / NE)     

The following are some severe weather parameters and indices explanations:
CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m² s^-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM 3KM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CDT MAY 19 – 11:00 P.M. CDT MAY 19

NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CDT MAY 19 – 11:00 P.M. CDT MAY 19
NAM 3KM RADAR SIMULATION 1:00 P.M. CDT MAY 19 – 11:00 P.M. CDT MAY 19

Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view forecasts, any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER