Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
The forecast center is closed on Sunday’s.

As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL risk for severe thunderstorms on DAY 2, TUE. MAR 03.  The current discussion indicates a probability of SLIGHT risk outlines on DAY 3 through DAY 6, as indicated by the 15% outline.  The CSU – MLP and NSSL ML forecast maps have done a decent job in indicating severe weather risks for these days for the past 72 hours.  To save room, I will not be posting separate graphics for each day as this would take up a great amount of page space.  The first graphic below is for the DAY 3 outlook
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) DAY 3 – DAY 6  SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS (LINKED)


CSU – MLP 6 PANEL PROBABILITIES (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

CURRENT DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MARGINAL risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 2 Outlook: FROM WESTERN NORTH TX TO EASTERN KS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR OUTLOOK TEXT)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
CSU – MLP DAY 2 PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NSSL ML DAY 2 PROBABILITY

DAY 2 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

SPC DISCUSSION EXCERPT:
…Northwest TX to eastern KS…
Potential for sustaining deep convection along the dryline appears slim through late afternoon Tuesday, amid very steep mid-level lapse rates, modest boundary-layer moisture, and initially weak convergence along the boundary. Thunderstorm probabilities will increase during the evening as the surface front accelerates south, with the 06Z ECMWF and NSSL-MPAS indicative of convective development to the immediate cool side of the front in the southeast TX Panhandle vicinity. While the unconditional probability is low, there is potential for large hail within a conditionally favorable environment for a couple supercells. More probable, rather elevated convective development is anticipated farther north from northwest OK into south-central KS towards late evening into the overnight. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer should support isolated severe hail. But an increasingly predominant cluster mode and southeast progression of the surface front should yield subsiding hail magnitudes downstream in the early morning Wednesday.

NADOCAST maps for tornado and hail probabilities will not available until the DAY 1 outlook.  

Based on my analysis this morning of the current severe weather indices, the forecast seems t0 call for a moderately unstable atmosphere at the moment.  Indices and current SPC outlook indicate severe thunderstorms may be possible from late afternoon through the evening hours, and possible into the early morning hours on Wed.  The main severe risk as of analysis this morning appears to be large hail, with the isolated probability for severe hail, based on lifted indices, bulk shear and, steep mid level lapse rates, and SBCAPE values within the 5% HAIL outline. However, based on analysis at the moment, forecast maps tend to indicate the strongest of indices and parameters will be confined to the Oklahoma portion of the MARGINAL risk and 5% HAIL outlines, over the SW portion of the state.  While the strongest / maximum 0 – 3 SRH values are located over the Nebraska portion of the outline, the lack of any MLCAPE in the forecast would pretty much preclude any EHI values and tornado risk.  The forecast indices posted below are located over the Oklahoma portion of the outlines, again currently forecast to be located over the SW portion of the state.

Based on analysis of model animations, the current outlook, and analysis of indices, the strongest convection and indices should occur approximately between 4:00 P.M. CST – 5:00 P.M. CST, and possibly isolated strong cells by 11:00 P.M. CST over southern Oklahoma within the risk area. Rain and general thunderstorms could initiate by 3:00 P.M CST.  Please visit the SPC homepage via the link provided for any changes to the forecast today.
CAPE VALUES FORECAST

DEW POINT FORECAST

Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, HRRR 3KM, CIPS DETERMINISTIC, and SPC SREF model guidance.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning.  Bear in mind, MAXIMUM indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity, and can change between this analysis and the DAY 1 outlook.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 250- 1500 j/kg-1                  
MLCAPE: 500 – 750 j/kg-1                   
MUCAPE: 250 – 1250 j/kg-1                
SRH 0 -1 km: 100 – 250 m2/s2               
SRH 0 -3 km: 100 – 350 m2/s2        
SRH EFFECTIVE: <100 m2/s2          
L. I.: -2 to -6                                                  
SCP: 1.0 -5.0                                          
STP: 0.0 – 0.2
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 kts – 70 kts                  
EFF. SHEAR: 40 kts – 50 kts                        
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.5C – 8.5C   
DEWPOINT: 46F – 62F                                    
EHI: 0.3 – 0.9                                     
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 51C                  
K INDEX: 16C to 29C                                          
SWEAT INDEX: 295 – 330                         
THOMPSON INDEX: 18 to 35      
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: <10,000     

CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m² s^-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM 3KM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 3:00 P.M. CST MAR. 03 – 6:00 A.M. CST MAR. 04

NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 3:00 P.M. CST MAR. 03 – 6:00 A.M. CST MAR. 04

NAM 3KM RADAR SIMULATION 3:00 P.M. CST MAR. 03 – 6:00 A.M. CST MAR. 04

Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view forecasts, any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST