Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
The forecast office is closed on Sunday

The SPC has indicated severe weather risks for the following days:
DAY 3: MARGINAL
DAY 5: SLIGHT
DAY 6: SLIGHT
DAY 7: SLIGHT
ALL IMAGES LINKED:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MARGINAL risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 2 Outlook: ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…

…SPC SUMMARY DAY 2…
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR OUTLOOK TEXT)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.  
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. 
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
The following is the current CSU – MLP severe weather forecast map and NSSL ML probability forecast:
CSU – MLP DAY 2 FORECAST PROBABILITIES (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NSSL ML DAY 2 SEVERE PROBABILITY 

CSU – MLP DAYS 3 – 8 PROBABILITIES (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

DAY 2 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

SPC DISCUSSION EXCERPT DAY 2:
…Western and Central Kansas…
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. Ahead of the system, a broad low-level jet will move through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, with moisture advection occurring to the south of the front over much of the region. By early evening, the front is forecast to be located across northern Kansas. As low-level convergence increases along the front during the late afternoon, convective initiation will become likely. A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop in northern and western Kansas, moving southeastward into south-central Kansas during the evening. The NAM forecast sounding at Garden City, Kansas late Wednesday afternoon has MUCAPE near 750 J/kg with about 35 knots of effective shear and 850-500 mb lapse rates greater 8 C/km. This should be enough for isolated large hail with the stronger cells. The hail threat should continue into the early to mid evening, as a low-level jet ramps up across over the central Plains.

NADOCAST maps for tornado and hail probabilities do not become available until the DAY 1 outlook.  
12Z NADOCAST TORNADO PROBABILITY

12Z NADOCAST SIGTOR PROBABILITY 

12Z NADOCAST HAIL PROBABILITY 

12Z NADOCAST SIGHAIL PROBABILITY 

Based on my analysis of the preliminary severe weather indices, the forecast calls for a marginally unstable atmosphere at the moment.  Indices and current outlook maps indicate the main severe weather threat to be the probability for some isolated large hail.  Indices at the moment indicate a negligible tornado risk.  Some indices will most likely change between issuance of this synopsis, and by the onset of the DAY1 outlook, so this forecast should not be taken as absolute.  
CAPE VALUES FORECAST

DEW POINT FORECAST

Based on analysis of model animations, the current outlook, and analysis of indices, the strongest convection and indices should occur by late afternoon on Wednesday, through the evening, with current animations indicating the strongest between 5:00 P.M. – 10:00 P.M. CDT.  

Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, CIPS DETERMINISTIC, and SPC SREF model guidance.

REGARDING EHI VALUES: While EHI values are calculated utilizing MLCAPE and 0 – 3 km SRH values (MLCAPE x 0 – 3 km SRH /160,000), the highest SRH values do not always fall within ample, highest MLCAPE values for the best probability of tornado activity. I utilize the SRH and MLCAPE values over the area that may have the most likely tornado potential. Maximum EHI values are calculated within the area(s) that have the greatest probability for tornado activity.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning.  Bear in mind, indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 250 – 1000 j/kg-1                  
MLCAPE: 250 – 750 j/kg-1                   
MUCAPE: 250 – 1000 j/kg-1                
SRH 0 -1 km: <50 – 50 m2/s2               
SRH 0 -3 km: 50 – 150 m2/s2        
SRH EFFECTIVE: 50 – 100 m2/s2          
L. I.: 0 to -4                                                  
SCP: 0 – 2                                           
STP: 0.0 
0 -6 km SHEAR: 35 kts – 40 kts                  
EFF. SHEAR: 30 kts – 35 kts                        
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.5C – 8.0C   
DEWPOINT: 41F – 49F                                    
EHI: 0.1 – 0.7                                        
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 53C                       
K INDEX: 24C – 38C                                          
SWEAT INDEX: 385 – 420                             
THOMPSON INDEX: 24– 42                     
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: <10,000 

The following are some severe weather parameters and indices explanations:
CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m² s^-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM 3KM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 3:00 P.M. CDT APR. 08 – 11:00 P.M. CDT APR. 08

NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 3:00 P.M. CDT APR. 08 – 11:00 P.M. CDT APR. 08

NAM 3KM FORECAST RADAR ANIMATION 3:00 P.M. CDT APR. 08 – 11:00 P.M. CDT APR. 08

I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC HOMEPAGE
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any forecasts, special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST