Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

Thanks to all of you that still follow my forecasts.  I truly appreciate each and every one of you!

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
The forecast office is closed on Sunday.

The SPC has cancelled the MARGINAL severe risk for today

As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has a 15% probability, indicating a SLIGHT severe weather risk in their DAY 4 severe weather outlook:
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)
SPC DAYS 4 – 5 FORECAST DISCUSSION
…Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5…
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.

On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.

NADOCAST maps will not be available until the SPC DAY 1 outlook. 

The following are the current CSU – MLP and NSSL – ML  severe weather guidance forecast maps for DAY 4:
CSU – MLP DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY MAP (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NSSL – ML DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY MAP

I will continue to monitor the updates of the SPC outlooks for any changes, and intend to update as possible during the week.

Limited information obtained in analysis this morning was derived from the 00Z GFS model run, as the NAM 3KM comes into play starting at 60 hours out into the forecast period.  I should have more accurate information as far as forecast parameters as the risk becomes the DAY 1 outlook.

Given that a limited analysis was only able to be conducted, and the GFS does not have the higher resolution of the NAM 3KM, the following should not be considered absolute as guidance will most likely change over the next few days.

The GFS model current severe indices and parameters indicate at the moment to potential for a MODERATELY unstable atmosphere on Thu.
GFS SBCAPE (SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) FORECAST

GFS DEW POINT FORECAST

This current forecast setup could suggest the main risks to be damaging thunderstorm winds / gusts, hail, and isolated tornado activity, based on the analyzed indices.  Strongest indices appear to be located within the darkest shading in the NSSL ML probability forecast map :
SBCAPE: 750 – 2000 j/kg-1     
MLCAPE: 500 – 1000 j/kg-1        
MUCAPE: 750 – 2000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -3 km: 100 – 350 m2/s2  
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 250 m2/s2 
L. I.: -1 to -5 
0 -6 km SHEAR: 60 kts – 70 kts  
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5C – 7.5C   
DEWPOINT: 60F – 65F
EHI: 0.5 – 2.2 
K INDEX: 22C – 32C

The following is a list explaining severe weather parameters and indices:
CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

Again, I will be monitoring the situation over the next few days and will make the appropriate changes as warranted.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view forecasts, any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)You may direct any questions by contacting me personally ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST