Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center does not indicate any severe weather probabilities for the week. However, the current discussion indicates a probability of a SLIGHT risk outline on DAY 6, Wed. MAR. 04 as indicated by the 15% outline
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) DAY 6 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

SPC DAYS 4 – 8 FORECAST DISCUSSION
…Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5…
At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

…Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8…
On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026
The following maps are from the CSU – MLP and NSSL ML DAY 6 probability forecasts:
CSU – MLP DAY 6 PROBABILITY vs SPC DAY 6 PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NSSL ML DAY 6 PROBABILITY
Forecast information from the GFS (SBCAPE) and ECMWF (MUCAPE) currently indicate a good probability for a low end MODERATELY unstable environment.
GFS SURFACE BASED CAPE

ECMWF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE

ECMWF AND GFS DEW POINT FORECAST


Short range severe indices were not available as the NAM 3km model only
runs out to 60 hours in the forecast period, and NAM 12km out to 84 hours in the period.

I will be monitoring this up through the beginning of next week, and will try to update accordingly.  Based on the information being more than 72 hours out in the period, it should not be taken as absolute, as conditions can and will most likely change prior to Wednesday.

You may notice in the SPC summary, that severe weather is hinted at for days 7 and 8 as well.  Because of certain variances noted  in forecast information, the SPC has not issued any severe outlines prior to, or past DAY 6.  Again, the following should not be taken as absolute, however the MLP models over the past 48 hours have become stronger in their probabilities, indicating a probability for DAY 5, Tues.  MAR. 03, and for DAYS 7 and 8.  Looking at these against the SPC information, I feel at the moment the MLP modeling may be overdone.  However, just be aware that although not absolute in nature, severe weather risks could be issued for the days mentioned, which will all depend on the EXACT atmospheric setup. 
CSU – MLP AND NSSL ML DAY 5 – 8 SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST MAPS (CSU  – MLP LINKED FOR LARGER IMAGES)




Again, I will be monitoring the situation over the next few days and will make the appropriate changes as warranted.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view forecasts, any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST