Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
Ive decided to change up the menu a bit, and will be focusing mainly on the upcoming coastal entity that will be affecting the eastern seaboard over the weekend.

The Storm Prediction Center does not indicate any severe weather probabilities, for the week.  Should a risk be introduced, it will be included in the future synopses.

I will be using the ECMWF model for the main forecast graphics for winter weather forecasts.  Over my years of forecasting, I prefer this model, as numerous articles depict the ECMWF to be the more accurate model as compared to the GFS.  Here is an excerpt from an article I found:

The ECMWF model’s resolution is 9km or about 5.5 miles. The GFS has a resolution of 25km or roughly 15.5 miles. This resolution is the distance between two points on a grid that the weather model uses. The smaller the number, the better the resolution/quality of a forecast.  The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is another global numerical weather prediction model that is highly regarded for its accuracy. It employs advanced data assimilation techniques and sophisticated numerical algorithms to simulate atmospheric processes. The ECMWF model provides high-resolution forecasts for various meteorological variables, enabling forecasters to make more precise predictions.  According to current weather forecasting standards, the ECMWF model is generally considered the most accurate for predicting snowfall totals, often performing slightly better than American weather models like the GFS.

Should a forecast indicate very cold temperatures, or cold snowy weather:

The following link is from the Animal Welfare Act, and provides guidelines for temperatures regarding your animal:
ANIMAL WELFARE ACT
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ac-tech-note-temp-req-dogs.pdf
CONUS SATELLITE LOOP

WPC 12Z SURFACE MAP (LINKED TO SURFACE MAP/RADAR ANIMATION)

Based on analysis of MSLP animations from the ECMWF, OOA late this evening, an area of lowering MSLP is forecast to develop over or near the northern Bahamas area.  This low pressure area is currently forecast to move in a NE direction.  By late Saturday afternoon, the low is currently forecast to have a center reformation just southeast of the OBX off the coast of N.C.  As this occurs, this system is forecast to rapidly intensify with current forecast lowest central pressure of approximately 972 – 970 mb (28.70 – 28.64 in.)
ECMWF MSLP ANIMATION 96 HOUR FORECAST


A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
The following is from the NWS Ocean Prediction Center:
Offshore Waters Forecast NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 346 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026:
West central North Atlantic continental shelf and slope waters beyond 20 nm to 250 nm offshore, including south of Georges Bank from 1000 fm to 250 nm offshore.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

Locally higher winds and seas can be expected in and near tstms.

ANZ930-302100- Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear between 100 NM and 250 NM offshore- 346 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
TODAY…NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
TONIGHT…E to NE winds 10 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Chance of rain with vsby 1 nm or less.

SAT…E winds 30 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Chance of rain with vsby 1 nm or less.
SAT NIGHT…S to SW winds 30 to 40 kt, becoming NW 55 to 65 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft, building to 18 to 28 ft. Chance of rain early, then scattered showers and isolated tstms with vsby 1 nm or less.

SUN…NW winds 50 to 65 kt, diminishing to 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
SUN NIGHT…NW winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft.

MON…NW winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming 25 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
MON NIGHT…NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

TUE…NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
TUE NIGHT…W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

Surface winds could possibly reach 60 mph along the coast, with gusts to 70 – 75 mph possible.  This could change, depending on the actual intensity attained by the storm.
CURRENT ECMWF SURFACE WIND AND WIND GUSTS FORECAST J




Seas are currently forecast to reach 8 – 10 ft close to the coast (10 – 14 ft along the OBX) and 25 – 30 ft well offshore.  Individual wave heights could reach 16 – 20 ft along the OBX, and 40 – 50 ft. well offshore.
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST

ECMWF MAXIMUM INDIVIDUAL WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST

This system will also be responsible for more snowfall over portions of the TN Valley, Mid Atlantic region and a portion of the NE.  Some very isolated freezing rain and sleet are also possible.
ECMWF 4 DAY KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS

FREEZING RAIN

SLEET

Residence within the area of onshore wind flow could experience some minor coastal flooding and possible minor beach erosion.  I recommend small craft remain in port, and residence remain away from the water during this event.  It is recommended that commercial shipping remain alert and avoid the area if possible by taking evasive action.

I will continue to monitor this situation very closely during the next 48  hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions, and will make this the main focus of my forecasts over the next few days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

NSSL WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX FORECAST (DAY 1 – 3) LINKED MAP

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any forecasts, watches / warnings, special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS