Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast will start closer to home today.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   11*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (10 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Based on analysis of current satellite loop imagery, an area of low pressure has developed off the SEUS coast, with a center located approximately at 30.8N;78.0W
SEUS SATELLITE LOOP


Based on analysis of MSLP animations from the ECMWF, GFS and CMC models, the system should continue over the Gulfstream, and take pretty much of a N to NNE path remaining not too far off the U.S. east coast before moving over cooler waters.  The ECMWF model indicates that another low could develop north of the current low in a few days as it nears the Mid Atlantic coastal area, while the GFS indicates this, but in a weaker fashion  Right now, it is unknown as to whether or not this may try to transition to sub-tropical.  The ECMWF EPS probability is indicating a 30% chance of development, however the forecast calls for wind shear to remain high over this low, and drier air to be in the southern portion of the low. Based on this, the low is forecast to be “baroclinic”(extratropical”).  Regardless of whether it transitions or not, or should the northern low develop or not, I highly recommend residents along the Eastern Seaboard mostly from the Carolinas, northward monitor this very closely, as this system is forecast to produce strong gale force winds with possible gusts to hurricane force, possible localized heavy rainfall,  significant coastal flooding given the possible slow movement and possible brief stall.  Coastal flooding may occur due to the easterly fetch of wave heights near the coast reaching anywhere from 10 – 14 ft, and maximum individual wave heights reaching 35 – 40 feet well offshore.  Some power outages cannot be ruled out.   I recommend residents remain away from the beaches due to the possible dangerous surf, and small craft remain in port until this system passes. 
Please do not ignore this…for your safety I recommend you click on the NWS WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY MAP at the bottom of the page.  Once you click on it, and the map displays itself, click on your area of interest for current watches and warnings.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST ANIMATION


ECMWF SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS FORECAST


ECMWF GUST SWATH


ECMWF AND NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS TOTAL PRECIPITATION 7 DAY FORECAST


ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION 

I will continue to monitor this situation very closely during the next 48 – 96 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions , and if needed, will try to update as necessary.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm JERRY is now moving to the N.  
TROPICAL STORM JERRY SATELLITE LOOP


As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Tropical Storm JERRY.  
11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 11
Location: 25.8N;63.2W
Moving: N 16 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in.
Max sustained: 50 mph

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/111456.shtml
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/111455.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
All watches and warnings have been discontinued

NHC  GRAPHICS


RAINFALL FORECAST

RIP CURRENTS


Based on my analysis of updated forecast steering, JERRY should follow the forecast track guidance, and should make the northeast turn sometime tomorrow Given this, I agree with the NHC forecast track.
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP

JERRY became a little better organized overnight and earlier this morning, and did briefly attain 60 mph, as an abrupt change in conditions developed during this time.  Analysis this morning of CIMSS wind shear and upper level winds indicated wind shear had weakened to around 10- 15 kts, and the upper level outflow pattern improved during this brief period.  However, JERRY has begun a weakening trend, and this is forecast to continue.  It is noted that wind shear is forecast to increase over the next 18 – 24 hours, and will cause the continued slow weakening of the storm.  Once JERRY begins moving to the NE, I will discontinue updates on him, in order to focus on the East Coast storm.

Elsewhere, and area of disturbed weather associated with an EATL Tropical Wave appears to be getting slowly better organized.  Based on visible satellite loop imagery, the “center” of the wave appears to be located at approximately 8.5N;29.0W.  The NHC has designated a LOW (30%) probability for development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO

EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of current wind shear indicates a very pronounced radial shear pattern over the wave, as well as established outflow in the upper level.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS


Based on analysis of forecast TPW and 700 – 500 mb relative humidity values, favorable surface to mid level moisture will be ample for at least the next 72 hours.  The wind shear forecast calls for shear to remain low, with the radial shear pattern remaining in place for approximately 48 – 72 hours.  Based on this, slow development of this wave should continue for the next 2 – 3 days, and I would not be surprised if a Tropical Depression develops by then.

The system is moving toward the west, however based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, in approximately 72 – 96 hours, the system most likely take the same path as JERRY, recurving.  This is pretty much shown in the NHC GTWO map above based on the yellow hatched area.  I will continue to monitor this for any changes to the forecast.

Elsewhere, the ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast is indicating another Tropical Wave may exit Africa in about 4 – 5 days, with an initial 30% probability for development.  This should be considered low confidence at the moment, however I felt it was worth noting the model indicates a possible entry into the Caribbean in its animation by days 9 – 10.  I will be monitoring this closely to see what actually occurs.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY DAYS 5 AND 10


The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS