Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast will start closer to home today.  This is long, however you may enjoy it.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   12*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (11 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Based on analysis of current satellite loop imagery, the coastal storm (Nor’easter) has become tighter in circulation, with the center located near and almost over the southern portion of the OBX as noted in visible satellite loop imagery.  The secondary low that has been forecast is located near the New Jersey coastal area.
MID ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP


Due to a possible increase, (though not too great at the moment) in future tropical activity, my focus will be mainly on the tropics…however, I will still continue to monitor this area. Please continue to refer to the NWS WATCH / WARNINGS display for updated information regarding these systems, as being non tropical in nature, the NHC does not provide updates (Public Advisories).
NUMEROUS warnings are in effect. For your safety if you are within the affected areas, I recommend you click on the NWS WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY MAP at the bottom of the page.  Once you click on it, and the map displays itself, click on your area of interest for current watches and warnings.
REAL TIME RADAR (LINKED)

The following link is to the NDBC (National Data Buoy Center).  Click to view buoy information regarding conditions.  Once you get to the site, you can zoom in and click the yellow markers.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
RIP CURRENTS



Elsewhere, INVEST 97L was upgraded to Tropical Storm LORENZO.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO

As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Lorenzo:
11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 13
Location: 14.8N;41.2W
Moving: NW 16 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59 in.
Max sustained: 50 mph
LORENZO SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


Although an increase in deep convection is noted, visible satellite loop imagery indicates the LLC is still slightly displaced to the SW edge of the convection due to wind shear out of the SW earlier at around 20 – 25 kts.  This shear has currently shifted to westerly and appears to have reduced slightly.  Upper level winds indicate only a northern outflow channel.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR 

UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Based on analysis of forecast TPW and 700 – 500 mb relative humidity values from the global models and recent SHIPS diagnostics, drier air is forecast to affect LORENZO in about  36 – 48 hours in the period, based on a reduction of 700 – 500mb relative humidity values.  The wind shear forecast indicates shear to begin to reduce significantly later today (this evening) to around 10 kts, and remaining below 15 kts during the next 72 hours.  While the reduction in shear should allow for some good strengthening, the presence of direr air and lack of substantial outflow should reduce the intensification, and intensification rate.  Based on current intensity guidance, LORENZO could attain an intensity of 60 – 70 mph.  Based on these forecast conditions, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

LORENZO is moving toward the NW.  Based on analysis of current forecast steering layers maps.  An approaching trough should create a weakness in the ridge, and LORENZO should make a turn to the north sometime on Tuesday.  Based on this analysis, LORENZO should follow the current guidance and the NHC forecast track.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK

Elsewhere, I am monitoring a Tropical Wave that is exiting the African continent this morning.  Based on visible satellite loop imagery, the center of the wave appears to be approximately near 8.0N;14.5W, and appears it may be the wave the EPS cyclone formation probability forecast has been picking up on.
EATL TROPICAL WAVE


Based on analysis of global models (to which I prefer the ECMWF), conditions are forecast to be favorable for some slow organization and development of this wave during the next 5 days, with the forecast of a partial radial shear pattern, and a very favorable amount of precipitable water and mid level relative humidity.  IF this wave follows the projected path (in which the formation probability model has been consistent with for the past 3 days, as well as some ensemble members), it will be approaching the Lesser Antilles in 7 days.  At that time in the forecast period, forecast conditions begin to show an increase in favorability with precipitable water, 700 – 500 mb RH, and improving radial shear patter.  The current wind shear map indicates a well established radial shear pattern over the wave.
CIMSS EATL WAVE WIND SHEAR (PINK ARROWS)

FORECAST TPW AND RH 168 HOURS


As far as a forecast path, since there is no current guidance models as we do not have an established system at the moment, this should be considered low confidence.  However, the ECMWF EPS formation probability model has been consistent over the past 3 days in bringing this feature into the Caribbean after crossing the Lesser Antilles.  Ensemble models are beginning to indicate this, with the ECMWF EPS, GEFS, and GEM indicating the same scenario by 168 hours.  IF this occurs, at the same time, forecast conditions are supposedly to become very favorable for further development with high moisture remaining in place, and development of a vast radial shear pattern.  Again, this information will become more accurate once we are within the 5 day forecast range.  The current run of the ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability indicates a 40% probability for development during the next 72 hours, with a 60% probability by 168 hours.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY


I will continue to monitor this situation closely, and recommend residents of the Lesser Antilles monitor this for any changes.

Elsewhere, while the ensemble models indicate limited activity for the next 7 days, the 7 – 10 day animations are beginning to hint at some increase.  The ensemble forecasts this far out (7 – 10 days) are considered about 50% less accurate than the 1 – 5 day, but you’ll get the general idea.  With the ensemble models, the ECMWF has 51 members, while the GFS and CMC have 21.  Ensembles use the Initial Conditions only in the deterministic model, and the remaining ensembles are fed information based of “tweaked” initial conditions, of what some conditions may do further in the period.  I have a couple links that pretty much explains the process.
https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Section+5+Forecast+Ensemble+%28ENS%29+-+Rationale+and+Construction

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/10/12/difference-between-deterministic-and-ensemble-forecasts/

An increase COULD occur, as the forecast calls for the MJO (which is currently in PHASE 1), to cycle into PHASE 2 OOA Oct. 17, and then continue into PHASE 3.  I will be focusing my attention to the Caribbean and Gulf as we get closer toward this time, through months end.
ENSEMBLE MEMBER – WISE MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION FORECAST DAYS 7 – 10



The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS