This is a good example of "friends who I trust" as they use their words and supply images along with their thoughts vs "SUPER EL NINO COMING SOON!!" and that is why I took the time today to post this.

We look at research on ongoing patterns, trends that historically point to what we may expect. We don't look to glitzy graphics or hyped up headlines. We watch day by day the highs, the lows and where they occur as well as upper air patterns. We watch the graphics that show what is really going on in the ocean currents and we put it all together like a puzzle that will be solved in real time.

Signs do show an El Nino on the way.

What kind of El Nino tells the tale.

I'll be offline til Thursday Evening.

Then I'll be reading the CSU Hurricane Forecast.

Then we will see a lot of things.

Getting closer to Prime Time.

PreSeason... 

Mike's Weather Page...

...has lots of info if you search around.

Bottom right El Nino basics.