Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast is long and graphics intense.  However, all of the information can make a difference, as the purpose of my site is to try and help keep anyone affected by these systems SAFE!

Prayers to everyone in Jamaica, and all affected by Melissa!
STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   13*
TOTAL HURRICANES:          5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4
* (12 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

FROM THE NHC
MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT… …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA…

Satellite loop imagery this morning indicated Melissa continues to head toward Bermuda.  Melissa’s winds are now 105 mph, making here a CAT 2 hurricane.  As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Hurricane Melissa:
11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 30
Location: 27.8N;71.7W
Moving: NE 14 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb / 28.50 in.
Max sustained: 105 mph
HURRICANE MELISSA IR AND VIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


PLEASE USE THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK FOR HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WHICH INCLUDES STORM SURGE

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/301454.shtml
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/301451.shtml?
AVISO PUBLICO LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT3+shtml/301452.shtml?
DISCUSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATDSAT3+shtml/301455.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC  GRAPHICS


RIP CURRENTS

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Melissa has intensified slightly since early this morning now under some heavier wind shear.  The upper level wind pattern indicates outflow is now limited to a northern outflow jet over the storm, and Melissa is now located over much cooler OHC values.  The shear does not appear to be having to0 much detrimental affect, as it is moving in the same direction of the storm, and the hurricane is still over warm SST’S and a strong outflow channel is still noted in the north.
CIMSS MELISSA WIND SHEAR

CIMSS MELISSA UPPER LEVEL WINDS

MELISSA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

Melissa could intensify slightly during the next 12 hours, however analysis of forecast shear and moisture maps, and information from SHIPS diagnostics, indicates wind shear is forecast to continue to intensify, and mid level RH is forecast to continue to reduce, with dry air affecting the hurricane within the next 12 – 24 hours.  In fact, water vapor satellite gingery indicated a weak dry slot on the eastern portion of the hurricane.  Based on this, even though the possibility appears to warrant a slight increase in intensity during the next 12 hours, I feel Melissa may just hold current intensity.  Based on my analysis, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

There is no change in forecast track based on forecast steering analysis and guidance is very well clustered.  Based on this, I agree with the NHC forecast track, and Melissa should pass close to Bermuda, late today or sometime tonight.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE

There were no HURRTRACKER graphics issued.
NHC FORECAST TRACK 

The following is the ECMWF WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST

Since Melissa should be north of Bermuda tomorrow morning, this will be my final update on her.

Elsewhere, I am currently monitoring a Tropical Wave approaching the Lesser Antilles, located at approximately 11.3N;52.8W, moving west at around 12 mph.  Conditions are currently not favorable for any organization, however analysis indicates in approximately 36 hours, wind shear is forecast to relax, with some increase in precipitable water and mid level relative humidity.  Based on the forecast 200 mb pattern, upper level winds will be marginal for very slow development, if any.  I will be monitoring this wave over the next 36 – 48 hours for any changes to forecast conditions.
CATL TROPICAL WAVE SATELLITE LOOP


ECMWF PWAT AND 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY 36 HOURS


Elsewhere, analysis of 850 mb forecast maps indicate the CAG (Central American Gyre) may become active in a few days.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability map has been consistent in the past 3 days in a possible probability of development.  Shear analysis indicated low shear and a weak radial pattern, with marginal outflow.  However, MSLP anomaly forecast maps do not indicate any lowering of surface pressures or area of developing low pressure at this time, with the exception of the GFS and ICON models.  Forecast analysis indicates somewhat favorable to marginal conditions for the possibility of slow development.  I will monitor this during the next few days for any significant changes.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 144 – 192 hours

ECMWF, GFS AND CMC CAG POSITION FORECAST (VARIOUS TIMES)



ECMWF WIND SHEAR, MID LEVEL RH, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST



Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS