Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

This is tutorial number five and the final in the series.  This tutorial will touch on how tropical storms and hurricanes are basically steered.
AZORES – BERMUDA HIGH

Many of you are probably familiar now with the term “sub-tropical ridge”.  A ridge is an elongated area of high pressure.  This sub-tropical ridge in the Atlantic Ocean is also known as the “Azores – Bermuda High”.  This is due to the high being centered closer toward Bermuda during the summer, and closer toward the Azores Islands during the winter months.  Basically, this is the feature that steers tropical storms and  hurricanes from a general East to West motion once they enter the ocean as waves exiting the African West coast.  This area of high pressure averages a central pressure of 1024 mb (30.24 in.).  This is pretty basic, however the steering of tropical storms and hurricanes is a little more complicated than this.  The direction of a tropical system depends on quite a few more criteria such as strength, orientation, and location of the center of the ridge, location of the tropical system in relation to the ridge, as well as strength of the tropical system, location and strength of any interacting troughs, and any “breaks” in the ridge. A tropical system will head for the path of least resistance.  Think of water in a pipe flowing from one end to another.  It will flow in a straight path, unless there is a hole or “break” in the pipe, to which the water will flow out of the break or “weakness”.  Same for a tropical system.  A break in the high constitutes a “weakness”, and a way out of the tropics for the tropical system.  The ridge does shift slightly east and west throughout the hurricane season, remaining centered closer to Bermuda during the season.  Even the slightest shift can make big changes downstream.

I have seen some various posts over the past few seasons, of folks mentioning since the sub-tropical ridge was fairly strong during some storms, that U.S. landfall was likely.  Generally, this may be the case.  However, if a trough is approaching the storm from the west, usually off the U.S. east coast, chances for a re-curve are possible, as the trough is usually as strong as the ridge and will have the tendency to turn the storm away at the last moment.  Again, the strength of the storm, and the strength of these features plays a big role in this.

The strength of a system plays a critical role in the steering.  As a system intensifies and becomes stronger, it has a tendency to be steered by a higher “mean steering layer”.  This is why weaker systems will usually have the tendency to have a more westward component, while stronger systems tend to have a more northerly component (i.e. NW, NNW etc.)  If you click the following graphic from CIMSS, it will take you to all of the different steering layers.  You’ll note central pressure and intensity within rectangles at the top of the graphic.  Click on those to see the steering flow at each level:
CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE STEERING

Two terms I rarely hear regarding steering is “busting the trough” and “pumping the ridge”, which I know sounds a little strange.  However, we know in the case of a decent trough, it will cause a storm to curve away.  Busting the trough however is when a trough approaches a storm, and if the storm is very strong, it can keep going straight through instead of re-curving…this is “busting the trough”.

“Pumping the ridge” is a phenomenon that sometimes can occur with strong Category 4 hurricanes and Category 5 hurricanes.  This means the hurricanes outflow is strong enough to pump out a tremendous amount of latent heat.  Due to the northward transport of this warmer air, this amount of latent heat will have the tendency to somewhat reinforce and intensify any ridging directly northward of the hurricane, and allow for a little more westward component of the hurricane track.

A forecast item I’m sure you’re familiar with that has a correlation with this, are the infamous spaghetti models.  This is pretty much a suite of 50+ or so models which range from separate global models, ensembles, statistical, dynamic, statistical-dynamic, and hurricane models.  These project where each model “thinks” the storm track is going to be.  In general, most of the time, the ECMWF has the more accurate forecast track, along with the FSSE super ensemble sometimes.  Given the vast number of tracks, it can look confusing.
However, back in 2010 I was fortunate enough to attend the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando FL.  This was a five day event.  During this time, I was able to speak with forecasters from the NHC.  After this particular class, they had a question and answer period.  I asked them how they knew which spaghetti plot to follow.  They replied that the consensus models TVCA and TVCE, and depending on the situation, sometimes the FSSE (Florida State Super Ensemble) are the ones to follow.  I have noted in my years of forecasting hurricanes, the TVCA and TVCE tracks are usually very close to if not right on top of the NHC forecast track (OFCL).  In the following graphic, I have the colored arrows pointing to the OFCL and TVCA tracks.  You’ll note you cannot see the TVCE track.  Usually when this occurs, the two consensus model tracks are right on top of each other.
The following link will take you to the NHC track and intensity models page with the ATCF model I.D. and what each model consists of .
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

The following are the links to my Hurricane Preparedness post, and the other 4 tutorials in case you did not receive them:

HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS: https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/01/13/hurricane-preparedness-information-guide-issued-jan-13-2026-1040-a-m-est/

HURRICANE TUTORIAL ONE: https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/03/27/hurricane-tutorial-number-one-hurricane-formation-issued-mar-27-2026-1030-a-m-edt/

HURRICANE TUTORIAL TWO: https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/03/28/hurricane-tutorial-number-two-nhc-informational-videos-issued-mar-28-2026-1040-a-m-edt/

HURRICANE TUTORIAL THREE: https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/04/20/hurricane-tutorial-three-storm-surge-issued-apr-20-2025-215-p-m-edt/

HURRICANE TUTORIAL FOUR: https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/05/04/hurricane-tutorial-number-four-tropical-waves-and-hurricane-rapid-intensification-issued-may-04-2026-445-p-m-edt/

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER