Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
The forecast center is closed on Sunday’s.

I will be out of the office tomorrow for my wife’s medical appointment.

As a reminder, issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlooks from the NHC begin on MAY 15.  The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins on JUNE 01.  As soon as I get updated climate model information, which was supposed to update today, I will be making and issuing my final 2026 Hurricane Season forecast.  As of today, it still appears we may have a below average hurricane season.

This is the third in a series of hurricane tutorials.  This one will touch on hurricane storm surge.  I will post the links to the two previous tutorials in case anyone missed them.

STORM SURGE IS CONSIDERED THE NUMBER ONE KILLER OF A LANDFALLING HURRICANE!

The National Hurricane center defines storm surge as an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide.  Storm tide is defined as the water level rise during a storm due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide.

If you click on the following graphic, it will take you to a NHC article regarding Storm Surge:
INTRODUCTION TO STORM SURGE

The following link goes to a video from NOVA PBS on the topic of storm surge:
https://youtu.be/M3nH7euL7xI

Storm surge can cause effects well inland, however residents along coastal areas are more at risk and can be in grave danger regarding storm surge, especially if storm surge reaches heights of 24.6 ft like experienced in Hurricane Camille (1969), or 28.0 ft as experienced with Hurricane Katrina (2005).  Below are photographs of the Richelieu Manor Apartments at Pass Christian, MS., before and after Camille’s passage.  This is where the “infamous” hurricane party was held:


I know…WOW!…Right?

This is why, if your area is placed under a mandatory evacuation order, DO NOT HESITATE…GET TO SAFE SHELTER!…KNOW YOUR EVACUATION / FLOOD ZONE! 
This also applies if you live along  an inland waterway, that may be affected by water “pushed” into rivers, and waterways from the main storm surge.  This is why, I try to post probable storm surge values if time permits, with graphics from the SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) software program.  The following graphic is a sample output of projected storm surge values for the Florida Panhandle and surrounding areas during hurricane Helene:
SLOSH DISPLAY FOR HELENE:

One note about the SLOSH display…in my training on the software, it was learned that SLOSH values are said to have an accuracy of plus or minus 20%.  For instance in the above graphic, let’s take the western most surge flag of 13.6 feet.  Given the range of plus or minus 20%, an area projected to receive a 13.6 feet of storm surge, could experience a value of 10.8 ft to 16.3 ft.  This accounts for factors such as the strength of the hurricane category , (whether a minimal or top end in the category), direction of travel, mean tide or high tide, forward speed of the storm, and extent of the 39kt, 50kt, and 64kt+ winds radius, as well as storm diameter and contour of the ocean bed.  Also, on these SLOSH graphics, the values depicted are mostly for locations near and right of the center or eye of the hurricane.  Generally, the highest surge values are associated with the NE or Right Front quadrant of the hurricane.  The following video briefly explains the four different quadrants of a hurricane.  Click on the graphic to view.

The following link is from the NOAA, and explains the SLOSH program.  Go to the paragraph where it gives the training PDF, and Public SLOSH page.
https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sdp/

I don’t know how many of you realize the following…we know Hurricane Camille was a category 5 storm at landfall, and Katrina was a category 3 storm at landfall but had a higher storm surge than Camille.  Some of you may be asking, how could this occur?  As we know, storm surge height has a lot to due with what I just covered in the previous paragraph.  Those factors produce what is termed as I.K.E. (not the hurricane).  I.K.E. is short for Integrated Kinetic Energy.  In simple terms, in addition to destructive forces from wind, there is also destruction caused by storm surge.  This is known as (Surge Destructive Potential) or (SDP).  It can be calculated by using the I.K.E. calculator.  The following link provides a PDF article on I.K.E:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Files/IntegratedEnergyPowell2.pdf

Unfortunately, the I.K.E. calculator from NOAA / AOML is longer granted public access. (The Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) calculator and associated real-time products, formerly provided by the NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division (HRD), are no longer publicly accessible primarily because the underlying H*Wind analysis system was commercialized). 

IRT hurricanes in general…The Saffir-Simpson scale does not take into account the physical size of the hurricane, as far as destruction definition.  What has to be taken into account, at least for storm surge, is the size of the hurricane, the strength of the hurricane force winds and how far out from the center of the storm these winds extend.  For example, if a hurricane has hurricane force winds that extend out only 30 nm from the center, the storm surge will be less than a hurricane that has the same winds extending out 75nm from the center.  In Katrina, she had been a category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 175 mph just two and a half to three days prior to landfall.  So, in effect there was still energy and waves from a category 5 hurricane in the GOMEX, although she weakened to category 3  just  prior to landfall.  The energy generated by Katrina as a CAT 5 did not dissipate prior to landfall.

Here are the links to the 2 previous hurricane tutorials, and the hurricane preparedness information post:
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS: https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/01/13/hurricane-preparedness-information-guide-issued-jan-13-2026-1040-a-m-est/

HURRICANE TUTORIAL ONE: https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/03/27/hurricane-tutorial-number-one-hurricane-formation-issued-mar-27-2026-1030-a-m-edt/

HURRICANE TUTORIAL TWO: https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/03/28/hurricane-tutorial-number-two-nhc-informational-videos-issued-mar-28-2026-1040-a-m-edt/

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS