I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

Given the updated information for the Oceanic Nino Index values forecast, I have adjusted my seasonal forecast totals slightly

The SPC indicates an MARGINAL risk for severe weather today. Please refer to the link above for severe weather updates, or click on the graphic for access:
DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK


STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 12
TOTAL HURRICANES :      4 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:         5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 0
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

The NHC has designated the disturbed weather over south Texas as INVEST 90L.  The NHC has upgraded the probability for cyclone development to MEDIUM (60%) during the next 7 days. 
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast is now indicating an 80% probability for cyclone development between 24 – 72 hours out from the 00Z run, and a 45% probability for a Tropical Storm.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY


Because the area has not been designated a cyclone, the NHC is not issuing updates as far as location and wind speed.  However, analysis of the 12Z ATCF BTK report indicated that at 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT), the following information was available on INVEST 90L:

8:00 AM EDT Tue Jun 16
Location: 26.8°N; 98.2°W
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74 in.
Max sustained: 25 mph

From the NHC outlook:
This system is expected to move north-northeastward during the next few days, and could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America today through Wed. Environmental conditions there are expected to be marginally conducive for the formation of a short- lived tropical storm later today or on Wed.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas, southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days, which could produce widespread, life- threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required later today. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or the NHC Key Messages.

The following are INVEST 90L and ATLANTIC satellite loop imagery:
INVEST 90L SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

INVEST 90L was moving toward the NE at 9 mph. Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers, INVEST 90L could begin to move on a more easterly trajectory by later today, based on forecast low level steering currents, and could maintain a NE to ENE direction over the next 48 hours. This could allow for the “center” of this disturbance to exit ever so slightly into the Gulf. Based on analysis of the ECMWF MSLP forecast and analysis of current track guidance, the center COULD remain just offshore and hug the coastline. Analysis of current track guidance from RAL indicates this motion. Currently I prefer the HWFI track, given that dynamic and consensus models are not in play at the moment .
RAL 12Z INVEST 90L TRACK GUIDANCE

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST MAP

Maximum sustained winds were 25 mph. Based on analysis of current and forecast wind shear, INVEST 90L is currently in a marginally conducive environment, with wind shear having reduced to 15 – 20 kts near the center, with a radial shear pattern centered just south of the center of the INVEST, and a diffluent pattern in the upper atmosphere at 200 mb. The forecast indicates these conditions to last for the next 24 hours, before conditions become less favorable to unfavorable. Surface to mid level moisture is forecast to remain very favorable.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR

CURRENT 200 MB STREAMLINE MAP

Based on this, I expect some intensification of INVEST 90L IF the center moves over the water, and can ride offshore along the coast. This will be crucial for any development. IF this occurs, given the marginal shear forecast and forecast for some upper divergence, the possibility for a Tropical Depression to develop, and the very slim possibility of ARTHUR developing briefly, prior to the system crossing land again, cannot totally be ruled out. However, the situation would have to materialize EXACTLY as described. The following is the current intensity forecast from the RAL guidance page:
12Z EARLY CYCLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE

WPC 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (LINKED)

I will continue to monitor INVEST 90L for any significant changes to the forecast.  Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.