There really is only one way for it to go.

IT would be ISAIAS 

should it get a name. 

But the wrinkle is...

...things change in real time.

Basically we have a stalled out frontal zone across Florida. Between the two orange/gold areas shown above. But much depends on timing. There's some models that lift it more to the North and then NNE or NE or North... . There's a dip in the atmosphere due to come down, that lifts it some and tries to grab it. Does the dip really "do" anything or does it stall out? How strong is that dip? How strong is our Invest then?

This is your typical Gulf set up in October when fronts have begun dipping down and systems in the BOC try to form. It always comes down to timing. Everything in life ...comes down to timing.

We have 80% chances of development, code red, in the BOC for a Gulf System

1 92L is very visibly trying to find some spin, find it's groove.

2 There's a huge stalled out front easily seen on the satellite imagery above.

3. It'll bobble around trying to find traction and possibly gain a name. The "I" name.

4. I'd watch out for odd surprises of any kind.

    Timing.

    Looping.

    Sudden burst of energy and attempt to move faster.

5 The area from New Orleans to Cedar Key needs to pay attention to how this evolves in real time.

6. The timing and strength of any "dip down" matters. Every thing matters.

7. Recon should go in tomorrow and we should have actual hard data to work with vs models. Models will have more to work with........

There is a chance IF it pulls together and there's a window of opportunity it can move faster than expected. There's about the same chance it slowly, stalls, slides and sort of glides along dealing with shear and not the best conditions .... 

And it can wobble around until it sees an opening. The question is does that window of opportunity, that window to develop allow it to develop? Maybe.

We will know more tomorrow. Definitely something to watch. Always best when models get real data!

Garbage in garbage out. Good data in, better data out. 

Sometimes these systems surprise us.... it is October ;)