Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast is long and graphics intense.  However, all of the information can make a difference, as the purpose of my site is to try and help keep anyone affected by these systems SAFE!

Prayers to everyone in Jamaica, and those in the path of this storm!
STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   13*
TOTAL HURRICANES:          5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4
* (12 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

FROM THE NHC
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN JAMAICA… …CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND.

On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next couple of hours, move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

A special update advisory was issued by the NHC at 9:00 a.m. this morning.  Melissa had strengthened again with sustained winds of 180 mph, and a central pressure of  896 mb / 26.47 in.  In the 5:00 a.m. discussion the NHC noted based on radar images out of Jamaica, that an ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) may have begun, however satellite imagery does not indicate this at the moment.

As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Major Hurricane Melissa:
11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 28
Location: 17.9N;77.9W
Moving: NNE 9 mph
Min pressure: 892 mb / 26.34 in.
Max sustained: 185 mph
HURRICANE MELISSA IR AND SWIR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


Satellite loop imagery this morning still indicates Melissa as an extremely organized hurricane, with a well developed core and well defined eye, and central dense over cast, indicating a still very powerful storm.  It was also noted that lightning was inside the eyewall, indicating intensification.
From an article online: Lightning inside the eyewall is a sign of a strengthening or intensifying storm. It indicates the presence of strong upward drafts (convection) in the eyewall, which are necessary for building up the electrical charges that create lightning

PLEASE USE THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK FOR HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WHICH INCLUDES STORM SURGE

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/281452.shtml?
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/281458.shtml?
AVISO PUBLICO LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT3+shtml/281500.shtml?
DISCUSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATDSAT3+shtml/281453.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS

RIP CURRENTS

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Melissa has had an improvement in upper level outflow, indicate by the large diameter outflow pattern, and wind shear reducing to less than 15 kts.  It was also noted in my analysis this morning, that mid level relative humidity was very favorable, precipitable water was well above favorable values, and OHC is very high…hence the continued intensification.
CIMSS MELISSA WIND SHEAR

CIMSS MELISSA UPPER LEVEL WINDS

MELISSA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

ECMWF CURRENT TPW AND 500 MB RH


Based on analysis of global models and current SHIPS diagnostics, these favorable conditions are forecast to remain with Melissa during the next 36 – 48 hours, with shear forecast to remain below 20 kts.  Thereafter, wind shear is forecast to increase and mid level dry air should begin to affect the storm.  As Melissa makes landfall damage is expected to be catastrophic.  Based on satellite images, and possible continued drop in central pressure, and most of the hurricane forecast models new forecast, I cannot safely rule out a possible intensity of 185 mph very close to or at landfall (which as I was typing this, NHC did a 10:00 a.m. special update…winds now up to 185 mph).  Most of the hurricane models at 12Z indicated a peak intensity of 165 kts.  As Melissa makes landfall, land interaction should begin to weaken her somewhat.  Based on my analysis, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

There is no change in forecast track with guidance becoming very well clustered.  Based on this, I agree with the NHC forecast track.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE

The HURRTRACKER graphics wind maps should read in knots, and not mph.
NHC FORECAST TRACK AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS






The following is the ECMWF WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST


I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 72 – 96 hours. 

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS