Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast is long and graphics intense.  However, all of the information can make a difference, as the purpose of my site is to try and help keep anyone affected by these systems SAFE!
STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   13*
TOTAL HURRICANES:          5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4
* (12 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

FROM THE NHC
…LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK…

As of the 2:00 P.M. intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Melissa:
2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 26
Location: 16.4N;76.9W
Moving: W 5 mph
Min pressure: 946mb / 27.94 in.
Max sustained: 140 mph
Maximum sustained winds were at 140 mph which makes Melissa a CAT 4 Hurricane on the Saffir – Simpson scale.  Recent satellite loop imagery indicates Melissa with a very tight core and well defined eye.
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


PLEASE USE THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK FOR HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WHICH INCLUDES STORM SURGE

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/261459.shtml
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/261736.shtml?
AVISO PUBLICO LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT3+shtml/261737.shtml?
DISCUSION
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATDSAT3+shtml/261506.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS



RIP CURRENTS

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Melissa was still under some slight wind shear as of analysis this afternoon.  A fairly strong, well established outflow in the upper levels was noted.  This and the combination of the very warm waters is having some negating effect of the wind shear.  You’ll note the radial pattern to the SW of the center.  Models are still indicating this to develop over the Hurricane, however I am still waiting for this to occur.
CIMSS MELISSA WIND SHEAR

CIMSS MELISSA UPPER LEVEL WINDS

MELISSA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

Based on analysis of global models and current SHIPS diagnostics, the current forecast calls for shear to remain below 20 kts through 72 hours, with a supposed radial pattern developing over the hurricane.  Analysis of the GFS zonal shear pattern indicates a lack of any real shear, with no zonal shear in the picture up to 96 hours in the forecast period.  Analysis of the 200 mb streamline pattern regarding upper level outflow, indicates a well established to remain in place, and expanded through 72 hours.  This would create some very favorable divergence aloft.  The ECMWF model indicates very favorable precipitable water and mid level relative humidity values to remain in place through the next 72 hours.  Also, the system will be over  high OHC (Ocean Heat Content) of at least 150 Kj/cm2, and SST’s of 30C.  OHC values of 50+ will sustain a hurricane, and also allow for rapid intensification if all other conditions are favorable.

IF these forecast conditions come to fruition especially with a reduction in wind shear and improved upper level outflow pattern as forecast, I would expect further intensification.  Some concentric bands were noted in satellite imagery.  This may indicate Melissa could soon perform an EWRC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle).  A major hurricane will weaken as this occurs, however once it recovers, will usually intensify, sometimes to a point of becoming a little stronger.  Based on forecast conditions and any core fluctuations, the rate of intensification can differ.  However based on forecast conditions, and an increase in forecast intensity from the HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and some of the other guidance, the suggestion is Melissa could attain CAT 5 status.  Based on this, I agree with the NHC current intensity forecast from the 11:00 a.m. forecast discussion.  This will not update until the 5:00 p.m. advisory

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA!  RESIDENTS UNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, AND SHOULD SEEK SHELTER AS BEST AS POSSIBLE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

There has been no change in the forecast ridge / trough pattern, so really no change in forecast steering.  Models have come into much better agreement on forecast track, especially during the next 72 hours.  Based on analysis of the more accurate guidance models, and consistency of these models, I concur with the NHC forecast track.   I will be monitoring Melissa closely for any significant changes.
18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

18Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

18Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS








I am not posting MSLP graphic animations given the good agreement in track guidance.

The following is the ECMWF WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST


I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 48 – 72 hours. 

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS