Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!
I will be using the ECMWF model for the main forecast graphics for winter weather forecasts.  Over my years of forecasting, I prefer this model, as numerous articles depict the ECMWF to be the more accurate model as compared to the GFS.  Here is an excerpt from an article I found:

The ECMWF model’s resolution is 9km or about 5.5 miles. The GFS has a resolution of 25km or roughly 15.5 miles. This resolution is the distance between two points on a grid that the weather model uses. The smaller the number, the better the resolution/quality of a forecast.  The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is another global numerical weather prediction model that is highly regarded for its accuracy. It employs advanced data assimilation techniques and sophisticated numerical algorithms to simulate atmospheric processes. The ECMWF model provides high-resolution forecasts for various meteorological variables, enabling forecasters to make more precise predictions.  According to current weather forecasting standards, the ECMWF model is generally considered the most accurate for predicting snowfall totals, often performing slightly better than American weather models like the GFS.

Should a forecast indicate very cold temperatures, or cold snowy weather:

The following link is from the Animal Welfare Act, and provides guidelines for temperatures regarding your animal:
ANIMAL WELFARE ACT
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ac-tech-note-temp-req-dogs.pdf
CONUS SATELLITE LOOP

WPC 21Z SURFACE MAP (LINKED TO SURFACE MAP/RADAR ANIMATION)

Based on analysis of MSLP animations from the ECMWF, tomorrow morning an area of low pressure will exit the east coast near the OBX area, with a central pressure of approximately 1008 mb (29.77 in.).  This low will continue to develop and rapidly intensify to an approximate central pressure of 968 mb (28.59 in.) by early Monday afternoon, as it moves toward the NE (located SE of Cape Cod).  Surface winds near the coast and later on offshore could reach 60+ mph.  As this occurs, surface temperatures will once again plunge over north central parts of the country, as well as over the NE to portions of the Mid Atlantic and SE regions.  Storm warnings, Hurricane force wind warnings, and Gale warnings are currently in effect.  Please refer to the NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY to access the information.
ECMWF MSLP ANIMATION FORECAST

Surface winds could possibly reach 50 mph near the coast, with gusts to 70 – 85 mph possible offshore.  This could change, depending on the actual intensity attained by the storm.
CURRENT ECMWF SURFACE WIND FORECAST 12Z FEB. 22 – 12Z FEB. 24

Seas are currently forecast to reach 8 – 12 ft close to the coast and 25 – 30 ft well offshore.  Individual wave heights could reach 40 – 50 ft. well offshore
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST


ECMWF MAXIMUM INDIVIDUAL WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST

This system, along with building high pressure to its west, will be responsible for more snowfall over portions of the Great Lakes region, Northeast, and New England areas.
ECMWF 72 HOUR KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS

The model as of analysis this evening did not indicate freezing rain or sleet.

Residence within the area of onshore wind flow could experience some minor coastal flooding and possible minor beach erosion.  I recommend small craft remain in port, and residence remain away from the water during this event.  It is recommended that commercial shipping remain alert and avoid the area if possible by taking evasive action.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

NSSL WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX FORECAST (DAY 1 – 3) LINKED MAP

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any forecasts, watches / warnings, special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS