Elephant Butte Reservoir, the largest in New Mexico, held about 1.4 percent of its conservation capacity as of Sept. 14, or roughly 27,900 acre-feet out of about 1.96 million, according to the Texas Water Development Board's Water Data for Texas tracker. That is about where the lake stood on July 27, when NASA Earth Observatory satellite imagery captured it at its lowest level since 1971.

The reservoir supplies irrigation water along the Rio Grande for farms in southern New Mexico and the El Paso area of West Texas, and it provides a portion of El Paso's water supply when water is available. Those fields grow alfalfa, cotton, onions, pecans, and the Hatch green chiles the region is known for.

The steepest drawdown appears to be over. NASA reported that the lake likely bottomed out for the year in late July, after agricultural releases stopped following July 28, and storage has inched up only slightly since. With the reservoir still near empty in mid-September, next year's water for farms in two states depends heavily on how much snow falls in the southern Rocky Mountains this winter.

A Record-Early Melt Left Less Water for the Lake

The shortfall is not the result of a single dry year. Extreme drought has gripped the Rio Grande basin for several years, and in 2026 the river's headwaters in the southern Rockies saw the earliest snowmelt on record, NASA said. Local forecasters reported in the spring that thin snowpack in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico had left runoff dismal.

The decline this year was steep. Water Data for Texas figures show the reservoir at about 12.4 percent full in mid-March and 7.4 percent in mid-June, before summer irrigation releases drew it down. For comparison, Elephant Butte was nearly full in June 1994 and held relatively high levels for much of the period from 1985 to 2000. During the 2013 drought, its annual low was 2.9 percent, about double this summer's level.

The drop has reshaped the shoreline. In a New Mexico State Parks update in July, the agency said crews were clearing exposed debris and using a long-reach excavator to remove silt and debris from the Marina del Sur boat ramp, and it urged boaters to watch for unstable shoreline, newly exposed hazards, and buoy changes. The park remained open. The division described the conditions as reflecting "long-term natural cycles intensified by regional drought and climate change," patterns it said are now common across the Southwest's major reservoir systems. In early August, the agency reported that low water had closed multiple boat ramps at state parks.

A Four-Inch Season for Southern New Mexico Growers

The effects reached farms months before the lake bottomed out. In April, Elephant Butte Irrigation District consulting hydrologist Phil King told KVIA that customers would receive only 4 inches of water this season, the second-worst release on record after 3.5 inches in 2013. A normal season delivers 36 inches. Irrigators in the El Paso County Water Improvement District No. 1 were expected to receive about 15 to 18 inches.

Growers who cannot make up the gap with wells face the hardest choices, including leaving fields idle. Orchard crops such as pecans are harder to pause than annual crops, which adds to the pressure on those operations.

The rules for groundwater are also changing. In late May, the U.S. Supreme Court accepted a settlement ending the 13-year Texas v. New Mexico and Colorado lawsuit over Rio Grande water. Source NM reported that the deal divides irrigation water in a 57 to 43 percent split, with the larger share going to New Mexico farmers, and requires New Mexico to cut groundwater pumping in the Lower Rio Grande by 18,200 acre-feet within 10 years. State lawmakers approved more than $22 million this year to retire irrigated farmland, improve conservation and expand monitoring tied to the settlement.

"Water is the foundation of New Mexico's agricultural economy and the lifeblood of communities across the southern part of our state," Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said in a statement, adding that the settlement lets Lower Rio Grande farmers plan for the future. As pumping cuts phase in over the coming decade, surface water from the reservoir system could carry even more weight for those farms.

Drought Pressure Reaches Beyond the Rio Grande

Elephant Butte is part of a broader squeeze. As of Sept. 1, 59.05 percent of the Lower 48 states were in drought, according to Drought.gov. Nature World News has also reported on federal projections that Lake Mead could hit a record low next year.

Beyond the mainland, NASA Earth Observatory reported that extreme drought covered 44 percent of Puerto Rico as of Aug. 25. Water rationing has been in effect in several municipalities since early August, and the federal government issued a drought disaster declaration for parts of the territory in late August.

Reservoir figures come with caveats. Daily storage data are provisional and subject to revision, and numbers shift with inflows and evaporation. The broader picture is consistent across sources: Elephant Butte's storage is at or near its lowest point in more than five decades.

Signals Rio Grande Water Users Should Watch

Farmers and ranchers facing losses can contact their local USDA Farm Service Agency office, since the department uses U.S. Drought Monitor maps in a fast-track process for disaster designations. Irrigators should follow notices from their district boards, which set allotments once spring runoff forecasts are clearer.

Boaters and anglers should check New Mexico State Parks alerts before visiting, avoid soft shorelines and watch for debris and moved buoys. Residents who notice changes in private well performance should contact local water officials rather than rely on social media reports.

The next weekly Drought Monitor map is due Thursday, Sept. 17, and NOAA's next El Niño discussion is scheduled for Oct. 8. A strong El Niño typically favors a wetter southern storm track, but federal drought scientists note that the link between El Niño and headwaters snowpack is weak, and that one wet year is unlikely to refill reservoirs depleted by years of drought.

Elephant Butte remains near empty in mid-September after its lowest point in more than 50 years. Farmers from Hatch to El Paso carry the most immediate burden, and this winter's snowpack is the key unknown for 2027 supplies.

What Readers Want to Know

How low is Elephant Butte Reservoir? About 1.4 percent of its conservation capacity as of Sept. 14, according to Texas Water Development Board data, near its lowest level since 1971.

Why did it drop so far? Years of extreme drought combined with the earliest snowmelt on record in the Rio Grande headwaters reduced the water reaching the lake, and summer irrigation releases drew it down further.

Who is most affected? Irrigators in southern New Mexico and the El Paso area, lake visitors and local businesses, and El Paso's water supply, which draws partly on the reservoir when water is available.

Is the lake still falling? NASA said it likely bottomed out in late July after irrigation releases ended. Storage has risen only slightly since and remains near 1.4 percent.

Is Elephant Butte Lake State Park open? The park remained open as of the state's July update, but low water has affected boat ramp access. Check State Parks alerts before visiting.

Could El Niño help next year? It can favor a wetter southern storm track, but NOAA says impacts are not guaranteed, and the link to Rio Grande headwaters snowpack is weak.