I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

Given the updated information for the Oceanic Nino Index values forecast, I have adjusted my seasonal forecast totals slightly

The SPC indicates an MARGINAL risk for severe weather tomorrow. Please refer to the link above for severe weather updates, or click on the graphic for access:
DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK


STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 12
TOTAL HURRICANES :      4 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:         5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Analysis of GOES satellite loop imagery indicates shower and thunderstorm activity over Mississippi and Alabama. The remnant low appears to now be centered near the MS / AL line.
GOES 19 GULF SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)


SE RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

The NHC currently indicates a LOW (10%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation from the remnants of ARTHUR during the next 7 days off the U.S. east coast near the Mid Atlantic area of VA / NC.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast is indicating an 80% probability for cyclone development between 24 – 72 hours out from the 00Z run, as well as an 80% probability for Tropical Storm formation
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY


Models indicate by early Fri. evening, the remnant low will emerge into the Mid Atlantic area over the Atlantic, developing a 1000 mb low pressure system. Analysis of forecast wind shear indicates although shear values are forecast at around 20 – 35 kts, the forecast indicates a “radial” pattern over the top of the low. This is different from “zonal” wind shear (shear from east to west, or west to east). If you think about how the radial patter looks, shear is basically moving away from the center of the system in an anti-cyclonic action, basically negating shear. This is favorable for development of tropical systems. The forecast indicates marginal divergence at the 200 mb level, which should provide limited outflow. Surface to mid level moisture is forecast to be favorable. Based on these forecast conditions, and analysis of forecast surface winds being further away from the center, I cannot rule out the remnants of ARTHUR re-developing into most likely a sub-tropical system either late Fri. or early Sat. This is going to be another wait and see scenario, as this all depends on EXACTLY how conditions come to fruition.

From the NHC Tropical Weather discussion:
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for
widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across
portions of the Southeast United States during the next day or two.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (LINKED)

WPC 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST ANIMATION (36 HOURS)

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST(BLACK CIRCLE REPRESENTS FORECAST LOW), 200 MB STREAMLINE, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST




Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

Elsewhere, I do not expect tropical cyclone formation for the next 5 – 7 days.

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.