I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

The SPC indicates an MARGINAL risk for severe weather today with an ENHANCED risk for Sat. Please refer to the link above for severe weather updates, or click on the graphics for access:
DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

DAY 2


STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 12
TOTAL HURRICANES :      4 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:         5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

SE RADAR LOOP

SEUS RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

The NHC currently indicates a LOW (10%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation from the remnants of ARTHUR during the next 7 days off the U.S. east coast near the Mid Atlantic area of VA / NC.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast still indicates an 80% probability for cyclone development between 24 – 72 hours out from the 00Z run, as well as an 80% probability for Tropical Storm formation:
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

Analysis this morning did not provide a clear picture of the trof / remnant axis in satellite imagery, and even though the cyclone formation probability is showing a high probability for development, analysis of the ECMWF model indicated a major change to the forecast wind shear pattern with an increase in wind shear and a little more of a zonal pattern, as well as change in the MSLP anomalies. The model at the moment did not indicate a closed low pressure area as it did in yesterdays forecast. In fact, it appears to merge with the large area of low pressure to its north. Although the model did indicate surface and mid level moisture does not change, given the less favorable upper level pattern, the formation probability may be indicating something sub-tropical, IF anything were to develop. IF the model is correct in its forecast, I am not expecting a closed low with tropical development, should this become absorbed. Again, this will not be clear until what remains of the remnant exits into the Atlantic, and I can analyze how conditions are developing. I will continue to monitor this today.

From the NHC Tropical Weather discussion:
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for
life-threatening flash flooding is likely across portions of the
Southeast United States through tonight.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (LINKED)

WPC 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST ANIMATION (12 HOURS)

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Elsewhere, you’ll note a Tropical Wave located near 35W and one just exiting Africa in the Atlantic satellite loop. You will also note in the cyclone formation probability forecast there is currently a 30% probability for development of the wave near 35W. While I do not believe development will occur, I am going to monitor both waves over the next 36 – 48 hours as conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive over the area.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

Elsewhere, I do not expect tropical cyclone formation for the next 5 – 7 days.

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.