Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!
This special statement is not to panic anyone, hype anything,  jump the gun or even guarantee anything will develop.  This is just for general information, and some practice on my part.  It is considered a tropical entity however.

Our first Tropical Wave of the season was introduced by the NHC in their 18Z surface analysis map yesterday.  Tropical Waves CAN exit Africa as early as April.  I was involved with updating various tropical documents yesterday afternoon for the site, and missed the initial update.
EATL IR SATELLITE LOOP

CURRENT EASTERN ATLANTIC WATER VAPOR IMAGE (WAVE CIRCLED)

As of 12Z (8:00 A.M. EDT), the wave was located near 33W Longitude,with the axis running from approximately 10.0N to just south of the Equator.
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

CIMSS TPW (TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER) CHART (WAVE AXIS IN BLACK)

The wave is currently embedded in the SAL and a very dry atmosphere, and is forecast to remain in this environment during the next 5 days.  TPW analysis indicates TPW to be very low.
NASA GEOS 120 HOUR DUST FORECAST

Based on TPW animations, the wave is forecast to continue to the west and should reach the northern coast of South America in approximately 4 days.  It appears the wave will remain far south and should not bring any precipitation to the Lesser Antilles.

Have a blessed evening!

This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.