I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. This synopsis is titled as SPECIAL, as the office is closed on the weekends.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 2
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating still quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin, with somewhat of a moisture increase in the EATL and within a portion of the ITCZ. The wave which is forecast to exit Africa in approx. 72 hours, appears to be the one near 0.0W in the satellite loop imagery

The NHC has introduced a LOW (20%) probability for tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast is now indicating a 50 – 60% probability of development of the Tropical Wave forecast to exit Africa in approx. 72 hours, and a 60 – 70% probability for development in approx. 96 – 144 hours
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


96 – 144 hours

The AI and some ENSEMBLE MODELS are still indicating development.

Analysis of the deterministic models and utilizing the ECMWF deterministic model, now indicates a weak area of low pressure (1012mb), between 96 – 144 hours in the forecast period, based on the 06Z run. I usually don’t use the 06Z run, however in more of my research, the 06Z ECMWF is considered accurate for short and mid term forecasts. Based on this, although the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is still forecast to remain in phase 6 and transitioning to phase 7, development can sometimes occur in the central to western Atlantic in the MDR region. The following is from further research I performed over the past 2 days:
Yes, tropical development can still occur in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) during MJO Phase 6, though Phase 6 generally places the enhanced convective pulse over the Western and Central Pacific rather than the Atlantic. The MJO is only one modulating factor; local sea surface temperatures, African Easterly Wave strength, and vertical wind shear ultimately dictate cyclogenesis.

MJO Phase 6 and the Atlantic:
Suppressed vs. Enhanced: Phase 6 typically corresponds to enhanced rising motion in the Pacific, which often places a suppressed, sinking-motion regime over parts of the tropical Atlantic.

Not an Absolute Block: A suppressed MJO phase reduces the overall odds of cluster thunderstorms, but it does not completely shut down the basin.

Other Drivers: If high ocean heat content, a potent African Easterly Wave, or localized low shear override the large-scale MJO signal, a system can still organize.
MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

Based on analysis this morning, initial conditions of surface to mid level moisture, wind shear, and 200 mb streamlines, are forecast to be fairly favorable with ample moisture, a reduction in wind shear with a radial pattern shown, but once again, minimal upper divergence based on the 200 mb pattern and MJO CHI200 anomalies forecast. These conditions are currently forecast to remain favorable for approximately 48 hours, prior to wind shear increasing out of the east, and intrusion of dry air in the mid levels beginning. Although SST anomalies are below average, SST’s are running around 26.0 – 28.0C (78.8F – 82.4F) in the area circled by the NHC. Based on this, should conditions play out as forecast, we could see some slight development of this wave, however based on divergence not being optimal, any development should be slow to occur.
ECMWF MSLP, PWAT, 700MB RH, WIND SHEAR, AND 200 MB FORECAST





I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 – 96 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.