Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast will start closer to home today.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   11*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (10 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Based on analysis of current satellite loop imagery, the coastal storm (Nor’easter) has become tighter in circulation, with the center located near and almost over the southern portion of the OBX near 34.1N;76.7W, as noted in visible satellite loop imagery.
SEUS SATELLITE LOOP


Based on analysis of MSLP animations, a NNE motion should continue for the next 24 hours, before this system turns away and completes semi cyclonic loop and then away from the U.S.  Being this has been over the Gulfstream, current thermal diagrams indicate the system has developed a warm core. 
ECMWF THERMAL DIAGRAM

Based on the shear forecast and the mix of drier air in the forecast, I expect this may remain baroclinic, however given the warm core, it remains to be seen whether or not this can transition to sub-tropical.  In order for this to occur, it would have to become detached from the current frontal boundaries. 
Please do not ignore this as NUMEROUS warnings are in effect. For your safety if you are within the affected areas, I recommend you click on the NWS WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY MAP at the bottom of the page.  Once you click on it, and the map displays itself, click on your area of interest for current watches and warnings.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST ANIMATION

ECMWF SURFACE WINDS AND GUST SWATH FORECAST


ECMWF AND NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS TOTAL PRECIPITATION 7 DAY FORECAST


ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION 

REAL TIME RADAR (LINKED)

The following link is to the NDBC (National Data Buoy Center).  Click to view buoy information regarding conditions.  Once you get to the site, you can zoom in and click the yellow markers.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

I will continue to monitor this situation very closely during the next 48 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions , and if needed, will try to update as necessary.

Elsewhere, INVEST 97L remains disorganized at the moment.  The NHC has indicated a MEDIUM (50%) probability for development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO

As of the 18z ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 97L:
2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 12
Location: 11.7N;36.8W
Moving: NW 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71 in.
Max sustained: 35 mph
INVEST 97L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Analysis of current wind shear indicates INVEST 97L is under about 20 – 25 kts of wind shear at the moment, and upper level outflow has deteriorated with just a limited single outflow channel to the north, hence the current struggle to organize further.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR 

Based on analysis of forecast TPW and 700 – 500 mb relative humidity values, favorable surface to mid level moisture will be ample for about the next 48 hours, prior to some dry air intrusion thereafter, based on the current forecast of the global models and SHIPS diagnostics.  The wind shear forecast calls for shear to relax during the next 18 – 24 hours to below 20 kts.  At that time, INVEST 97L will have a brief window to organize and intensify, before wind shear increase once again to above 20 kts, based on SHIPS diagnostics.  Based on this new information, and current intensity guidance at the moment, a depression could slowly develop in about 48 hours.  The ECMWF keeps this weak, and pretty much inline with the current intensity guidance.  
18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE

The system is moving toward the NW, however based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, 97L should continue NW for the next 24 hours, and begin to turn toward the north in about 48 hours, eventually curving out to the NE.  I prefer the TVCA consensus track 
18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS