Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I may be out of the office tomorrow for an event at my church.  IF I can swing it, I will try to issue a severe weather forecast early enough in the a.m.  I will try to issue a DAY 2 severe wx forecast later on today.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   12*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (11 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/
First, this is for the NHC.  Please quit designating probabilities on NON TROPICAL SYSTEMS (it’s called the TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK for a reason), and referencing they could take on subtropical characteristics, in order to inflate total storm numbers.  I did a little research, and even though KAREN was warm core from almost mid level to the upper, she was a joke.  THE FRONTS THAT WERE ATTACHED, DO NOT JUST DISAPPEAR IN 6 HOURS!  THE PROCESS IS CALLED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION TO SUB-TROPICAL…It’s a PROCESS:
Extra-tropical transition to subtropical:
For an extratropical cyclone to transition into a subtropical one, several key changes must occur over a period longer than a single day:

The following is your own TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS maps.  The first one is the map from 00Z OCT. 10.  The second is from 06Z OCT. 10.  Fronts do not disappear in 6 hours to the best of my knowledge!
 

CATL TROPICAL WAVE
I continue to monitor the Tropical Wave over the CATL.  Based on visible satellite loop imagery, the center of the wave appeared to be approximately near 9.6N;41.2W this morning.  The NHC has designated a LOW (30%) probability for development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 72 – 120 HOURS



CATL TROPICAL WAVE


RECENT ASCAT PASS

The wave continues to produce disorganized convection, and it still lacks a closed LLC based on recent ASCAT imagery.  Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates this wave is still under the effect of light to moderate westerly shear of around 15 – 20 kts.  Analysis of current vorticity maps indicate the wave is slightly tilted due to this shear.
CIMSS NATL WIND SHEAR
Based on analysis of global models, the models are indicating favorable surface moisture based on analysis of the precipitable water maps, and favorable mid level relative humidity values.  These values are currently forecast to remain with the wave during the next 5 – 7 days (120 – 168 hours).  Analysis of forecast wind shear indicates shear to fluctuate between somewhat favorable to marginal during the next 72 – 96 hours.  Thereafter, a change in the shear pattern is forecast in the south central Caribbean, with a lapse in shear and developing radial shear pattern.  An increase in TPW and mid level RH is also noted.
ECMWF, GFS AND CMC MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST ANIMATION 72 – 168 HOURS



Forecast path should still be considered somewhat low confidence, although ensembles and formation guidance have still been consistent on a consensus of bringing this into the Caribbean.  SHOULD this path occur, the wave will be in a more favorable environment for development.  Until then, conditions should remain somewhat favorable to marginal for very slow development of a tropical depression over the next few days.  Based on model animations and probability forecast maps, the wave may merge with the CAG (Central American Gyre).
CAG LOCATION 78 HOURS

I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 96 – 120 hours, and I recommend residents of the Lesser Antilles monitor this wave closely.  From the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the Caribbean Sea much of next week.

Elsewhere, ensemble models still indicate and have been consistent in the longer range showing an increased probability for tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf  by day 10 in the forecast period, however they have backed off somewhat on the intensity of the increase, as the MJO forecast is now indicating a little weaker signal, and a faster moving rotation.  When the MJO produces a faster rotation, conditions although favorable, are not as favorable as a slower moving signal.  
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

The NHC has designated another NON TROPICAL low with a LOW (10%) probability in that it may “develop some sub-tropical” characteristics during the next 7 days.  WHY?



Transition could be possible as the SST’s are warm enough at around 24C – 25C.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS