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Let's start with the rain forecast.
Where there's much rain... pressures can lower.
Watching close in always in El Nino years.
Not expecting development....but....
I would not rule it out as impossible.
It's basically the ONLY area to watch.
NHC says nothing for 7 days.
They are the official line.
Also rain in the South means cooler temps.
A real bonus and crops need the rain.
The South produces much produce.
Especially when we get rain...
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Texas Blobs.
I can't remember what year it was and I'll definitely look into it this weekend, but we had blobs in the Gulf near Texas constantly as if they'd become a permanent fixture. Sometimes when there are blobs close in over time the blob or an upper level low or trough can spin up tropical action close in. Again every year is different. This is early July. In early July 2019 looked like it would be a dead, quiet hurricane season due to an expected El Nino. That El Nino and the one we have today, is granted very different and yet still we see patterns. Blobs and Upper Level Lows swirling about. Deep tropics dead for now. Oh wait! As I am writing in real time it was 2019. That seems crazy as normally only one name we think of when it comes to 2019 and that was Dorian.
Ya know the year 2019 was an odd, interesting year in the Atlantic Basin and yet most people only remember Dorian. There was much discussion about a much awaited El Nino and preseason forecasts expected it to be a quiet year mostly. Articles such as "stick a fork in it" as seen above were way off when all was said and done. 2019 began similar to 2026 as there was an early A storm and then nothing for a long time. Then suddenly we saw formation fast in areas far from where the slow building El Nino that had yet to really appear was doing it's thing.
Oh look! Dorian, who had that one on their Bingo card that year? No one as you can see from the article referenced above. And, other than Lorenzo and Dorian most of the busy activity was made up of short lived, minimal storms that often formed close in or far away but everywhere but the Caribbean. El Nino DID stick a fork into the Caribbean as you can see below.
Lots of close in development.
Storms closer to Africa than Florida and Texas.
Short lived Imelda that formed from an ULL.
Short, small and yet caused much flooding.
Especially as the Gulf had blobs often ...
....and they were a bit waterlogged.
Cute little Imelda...
...big trunk like an elephant.
I talked a blue streak on Twitter and online in weather groups insisting that the ULL that was in the area and had been interacting some with other areas and was gulping too much convection and I thought it could develop and move North towards landfall. I was right. I read a water vapor loop well and understand these systems and that year had a lot of these sort of systems and Upper Level Lows. Imelda was short lived and forgettable unless you were one of the families who lost 7 people and or part of the 5 Million Dollar damage across multiple states.
While 2026 looks to be a historic El Nino and to add in there are other factors that may make development harder and I'm not just talking El Nino. But again we have time and time will tell. Do we get to the H storm? 2019 had the capricious Humberto. And, again as El Nino actually got it's act together it had Lorenzo way out there in the Atlantic.
Most of the ACE was from these 2 storms.
Dorian and Lorenzo.
This year is a whole different El Nino and yet there are similarities to think on. No, I am not saying we will have a close in Dorian, I am saying we have to watch close in for development along the E Coast and in the Gulf. Look how many named storms, most of them very weak, formed close in and far from the Caribbean. And, the Lorenzo types that were far out in the East Atlantic! But we could have a close in Dorian like hurricane, so we should always be prepared in every single as it really does only take one.
Never take your eyes off the tropics.
Never. Stop. Chasing.
Enjoy life, have a good weekend!
I can't promise we won't get to the dreaded I storm.
And I can't promise we will.
Every El Nino is different.
Every hurricane season is different.
Every person is different.
Some people are golden and memorable...
... like Donna and Dorian not Imelda.
The state of the Hurricane Season today July 10th!
Lots of moisture close in....
...is SAL really moving into the Gulf?
I always follow SAL patterns....
...with respect to future possible Storm tracks.
Note sometimes SAL forecasts are a bust.
In hindsight we know for sure what happened.
I would not call 2026 a Wipe Out.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
mostly weather on X
elsewhere depends on my mood
;)
I had a friend years back who loved this song when played on Oldie Goldie channels. He'd bang on whatever was nearby as if he was a drummer in the band on stage. He was fun to watch. So here's to him... time will tell how many names we have in 2026, if we get to the dreaded I storm ;)
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