The National Hurricane Center is now keeping an eye on the southwestern Gulf. We could see a broad area of low pressure get going over the next few days, but for now NHC gives it a 40% chance of it becoming a tropical depression or stronger over the next 7 days.

There are several hurdles for this to form. It would have to develop along a stalled front, and strong winds higher up in the atmosphere could make it difficult for the system to organize.

Weather models that develop the system, have it initially form in an area of very warm water and lower wind shear. While development is still uncertain, anything that forms could eventually bring impacts to the northern Gulf. At the moment, it’s too early in the forecast process to speculate on exactly where that would be.