Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   10
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Tropical Storm JERRY continues to move quickly to the WNW, and does not look as healthy as he did yesterday.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY SATELLITE LOOP


As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Tropical Storm JERRY.  
11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 08
Location: 13.9N;52.7W
Moving: WNW 23 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in.
Max sustained: 60 mph

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/081452.shtml
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/081451.shtml?

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the following locations:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC  GRAPHICS

RAINFALL FORECAST

RIP CURRENTS


Tropical Storm JERRY was currently moving to the WNW.  Based on my analysis of updated forecast steering, JERRY should follow the forecast track guidance, and continue on his current motion through today, and then begin a more NW motion after that, before making a turn more toward the north in approximately 48 hours, as the storm moves through a weakness in the ridge.  You’ll note the trough entering the picture over the Mid Atlantic states which is creating the weakness in the ridge.  This is forecast to amplify somewhat, and as it moves east, along with the motion of both ridges, will move the weakness east, hence JERRY should move as forecast.  Given this, I agree with the NHC forecast track.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF GUIDANCE

HURRICANE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE

CURRENT STEERING LAYER

NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Storm JERRY was under some slight wind shear of around 20 kts.  The radial shear pattern that was present 2 days ago, is no longer in place.  This indicates to me the models did not forecast this pattern very well, as the radial shear pattern 2 days ago was forecast to remain in place for at least 96 hours.  Regardless, though 20 kts of wind shear is the limit for development, JERRY is moving very quickly into the oncoming shear.  This is causing a shear effect of 40 – 45 kts.  On the other hand, although not optimal, an upper level outflow is still established, so this should have a tendency to offset some of the shear, which may be why the LLC is only exposed partially.  Long story short, the storm is “tilted” vertically, which doesn’t allow for heat or energy to “focus” over the center of the storm which can slow or stop intensification.  JERRY was also being affected by dry air, based on the “dry slot” noted on the west quadrant of the storm in TPW imagery. 
CIMSS RECENT WIND SHEAR

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

CIMSS JERRY TPW

Based on analysis of the global models, indications are the shear pattern may again become somewhat favorable as a weak radial pattern briefly develops, for about a 24 – 36 hour period.  In fact, current SHIPS diagnostics indicate a relaxing of shear below 20 kts for approximately 36 – 72 hours in the forecast period from the 12Z update, before increasing to above 20 kts.  Both SHIPS and global models do indicate an increase of both TPW and 700 – 500 mb RH values during the 36 – 120 hour period from 12Z.

Based on this, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment, however I believe JERRY will struggle with intensity during the next 24 hours, until we see whether or not the forward motion slows quite a bit, and if JERRY can mix out the current drier air.  Both of these are going to have to occur for the storm to intensify.  JERRY could possibly attain hurricane status, but given the split in guidance, I believe the storm will more likely be in the top end Tropical Storm stage, or just attaining minimal category 1 stage (75 mph). 
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

From the National Hurricane Center:

Elsewhere, we could experience some problems across the U.S. east coast around the Mid Atlantic states, northward in around 5 – 6 days, as global models are forecasting development of a low pressure area.  A Tropical Wave located ahead of JERRY may add to the situation, as it appears the wave may provide some energy for a low forecast to develop off the east coast in a few days.  Based on analysis this morning, should this low develop as forecast, it appears to remain baroclinic in nature due to the fact  if intensification occurs, it will be under the affect of SWLY wind shear.  When a system strengthens being directly under wind shear, it is usually a sign the system is baroclinic.  Some of the thermal diagram forecast keep it a cold core system, however others transition it to shallow warm core.  This will depend on how slow it traverses the Gulfstream and actual track.  Based on the current forecast wind field, this could bring gale force winds to the Mid Atlantic states as well as portions of the northeast states.  IF development occurs, given the possibility of a brief stall, or slow movement, the combination of rainfall and waves from the easterly fetch could cause some possible coastal flooding.
TROPICAL WAVE

ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP FORECAST



Since there is nothing to track at this time, information is limited.  I will be monitoring this situation closely over the next 72 hours.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS