Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast will start closer to home today.  This is long, however you may enjoy it.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   12*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (11 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Based on analysis of current satellite loop imagery, the coastal storm (Nor’easter) is departing the Eastern Seaboard.  Please use the NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY MAP at the end of this forecast to access information from your local NWS office.
MID ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP


RIP CURRENTS



TROPICAL STORM LORENZO
As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Lorenzo:
11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 13
Location: 18.2N;44.9W
Moving: NW 15 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in.
Max sustained: 45 mph
LORENZO SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


LORENZO has become poorly organized and is under about 20 kts of shear.  This, along with the forward speed, will cause the storm to tilt vertically and should begin exposing the LLC.  LORENZO is also now being affected by dry air.  While current SHIPS diagnostics indicates a lessening of wind shear by 48 hours to single digits, dry air will continue to affect LORENZO, as indicate by a steady decline in the forecast of 700 – 500 mb relative humidity.  Based on this, LORENZO should begin to weaken within the next couple of days.  Because of the forecast, I agree with the NHC intensity guidance.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

LORENZO is moving toward the NW.  Based on analysis of current forecast steering layers maps, LORENZO should begin to make the northward turn sometime later today, and by 24 hours, should begin to turn more toward the NE.  Based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, given the forecast interaction of the trough creating the weakness in the ridge, and forecast orientation of the ridge, LORENZO could briefly make an anti-cyclonic loop.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK

Elsewhere, I am monitoring the Tropical Wave in the EATL.  Based on visible satellite loop imagery, the center of the wave appeared to be approximately near 9.5N;21.2W earlier this morning.
EATL TROPICAL WAVE


Based on analysis of global models (to which I prefer the ECMWF), forecast conditions have changed, with conditions indicating a marginally conducive atmosphere based on the forecast wind shear maps.  Surface to mid level moisture will meet the minimum criteria however.  Based on this combination, the atmosphere should still be conducive for possible slow development of this wave.  Analysis of current wind shear and upper level winds indicate the conditions have become less favorable with the loss of the radial shear pattern, and lack of the well established outflow pattern which we saw over the past 2 days.  The probability from the ECMWF EPS cyclone formation forecast has reduced to a 10% probability at 72 hours, and 30% probability at 168 hours.  The GFS and CMC indicate development as the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles, while the ECMWF does not indicate any closed low pressure system.  IF this wave makes it into the Caribbean, forecast conditions indicate the environment could become more conducive for development.  So, in order to make any determination on development and intensity, we are going to have to see how forecast conditions actually pan out, and if the wave can become organized enough to become an INVEST, we can analyze guidance information.
CIMSS EATL WAVE WIND SHEAR 

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC ANIMATIONS DAY 5 – 7 (FOCUS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES)



As far as a forecast path, this is still a low confidence variable, however it continues to be suggested that this wave makes it into the Caribbean by day 7, based on ensemble guidance and the EPS formation probability forecasts during the past 3 – 4 days.  Based on the consistency, a track through the Lesser Antilles could occur, and entrance into the Caribbean is possible.  This is going to be touch and go over the next few days, so I will reiterate, this should be considered low confidence at the moment, however residents of the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the situation during the next 96 hours for any significant changes.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY


I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 96 – 120 hours

Elsewhere, ensemble models still indicate and have been consistent in the longer range showing an increased probability for tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf  beyond day 10 in the forecast period.  This should be considered low confidence at this time, however they have been consistent and the MJO forecast still indicates we should be in the favorable phases for development.  The following links explain how the ensemble members function:
https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Section+5+Forecast+Ensemble+%28ENS%29+-+Rationale+and+Construction

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/10/12/difference-between-deterministic-and-ensemble-forecasts/

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS