Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast is long and graphics intense
STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   13*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (12 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA
As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Melissa:
11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 21
Location: 14.3N;71.7W
Moving: W 14 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in.
Max sustained: 50 mph
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/211445.shtml?
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/211445.shtml?
AVISO PUBLICO LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT3+shtml/211446.shtml?

A Tropical Storm Watch and Hurricane Watch have been issued for the following locations:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS






Melissa is currently producing concentrated deep convection just east of the wave axis (or center if you will).  This is still due to a slight tilt vertically toward the east due to continued moderate wind shear from the west, as seen in the recent CIMSS wind shear map.  It is noted however in the last few frames of satellite loop imagery that convection is trying to blossom over the COC.  The system has become a little better organized although shear is still prevalent.  This is possibly due to what appears to be the system beginning to establish an upper outflow pattern, with a well developed outflow jet noted north of the system, and a southerly outflow channel beginning.  In addition, the system is close to entering some very high ocean heat content.  This may likely be nullifying some of the shears effect.
CIMSS INVEST 98L WIND SHEAR

CIMSS 98L UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Based on analysis of global models and current SHIPS diagnostics, I am a little skeptical on the SHIPS diagnostics wind shear value forecast and 700 – 500 mb RH forecast.  This is due to the SHIPS being derived from the GFS model.  Analysis of the global modeling, which includes the GFS indicates SHIPS does not match up with the GFS forecast maps, or the other global models.  So, based on my analysis of the ECMWF, the model indicates wind shear should begin to reduce at around 48 – 72 hours in the forecast period, with a radial shear pattern beginning to slowly develop, along with a more improved upper level outflow.  By 144 – 168 hours, if the model is correct, a very favorable pattern is forecast to be established with a well defined radial shear pattern, radial upper level outflow, and an increase in 700 – 500 mb relative humidity. Also by this time, the system will be over very high OCH (Ocean Heat Content). 
CIMSS OHC MAP

IF these conditions come to fruition and the system continues to develop a solid core closed low, I would expect to begin to see a more steady rate of organization and intensification, later in the period, as some dry air is noted in the forecast in the south quad of the storm, and close to the system toward the west.  In fact, the recent SHIPS diagnostics indicate a 25.0% probability of rapid intensification (4.5 times climatological mean), with an increase wind winds of 65 kts / 72 hours.  At the moment, I believe this is overdone, however if all conditions improve as forecast (shear and moisture improvement), I cannot rule out at some point, a brief period of R.I. (An increase in peak wind speed of 30 kts [35 mph] in a 24 hour period).  This would put the system at minimal hurricane strength at some point.  At the moment, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

Forecast path has come somewhat into better agreement, but should still be monitored until the system develops a solid core.  Right now, based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, I prefer a blend of the current model guidance consensus aids TVCA, TVCN and TVCX, and the HCCA consensus.

However, this will all depend on where EXACTLY a solid core develops, and EXACT strength of the system in the next 72 – 96 hours.  A stronger system would have the tendency to be further east and more apt. to make that sharp turn, while a weaker system would be more apt. to travel further to the west, before any turn ensues.  A deep trough is forecast to create a good weakness in the ridge in the coming days, and strength and exact timing will be critical to future track.  Based on all of this, I am partial to the ECMWF animation.  Based on this, I recommend residents of the ABC Islands, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba monitor this system closely over the next 72 – 96 hours.  Latest track guidance came out prior to naming.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on the still current uncertainty, I have to agree with the current NHC forecast track:
NHC FORECAST TRACK

HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS



ECMWF, ECMWF A.I., GFS AND CMC MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST ANIMATION 72 – 168 HOURS




I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 96 – 120 hours. 
From the NHC:

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS