Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast is long and graphics intense.
STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   13*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (12 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA
As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Melissa:
11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 22
Location: 14.4N;73.6W
Moving: WNW 2 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53 in.
Max sustained: 50 mph
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA IR AND RGB SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/221455.shtml?
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/221450.shtml?
AVISO PUBLICO LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT3+shtml/221154.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT3+shtml/221154.shtml?

A Tropical Storm Watch and Hurricane Watch have been issued for the following locations:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS

Melissa is displaying an established CDO (Central Dense Overcast), however  Melissa is still under some moderate wind shear from the west, as seen in the recent CIMSS wind shear map.  It is noted however the COC is located very slightly east of the deep convection, and the Hurricane Hunter aircraft had found the center to be somewhat elongated, and had re-formed just to the NE of the previous center.  The system is still under the effect of a developing outflow pattern, with a very distinct outflow jet noted north of the COC, and southerly outflow to the south.  This, along with SST’s of 30C, and OHC values of at least 100 – 150 KJ / cm2 is most likely causing a negating effect of the wind shear, hence the system is not really being torn apart.
CIMSS INVEST 98L WIND SHEAR

CIMSS 98L UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Based on analysis of global models and current SHIPS diagnostics, I am a little skeptical on the SHIPS diagnostics wind shear value forecast and 700 – 500 mb RH forecast.  This is due to the SHIPS being derived from the GFS model, which with the recent update in forecast track, is the outlier and shows Melissa over and then north of Hispaniola.  So, based on my analysis of the ECMWF, the model indicates wind shear should begin to reduce at around 48 hours in the forecast period.  Thereafter, at around 72 hours in the forecast period, the model indicates a steady reduction in shear, and slow and steady development of a radial shear pattern, while indicating an increase in precipitable water, and eventually an increase in mid level relative humidity indicating Melissa mixing out the current dry air on her west side.  By 120 hours, the model indicates a very favorable radial shear pattern, and a large and very favorable upper level outflow pattern.  Also by this time, the system will be over somewhat higher OCH (Ocean Heat Content).  OHC values of 50+ will sustain a hurricane, and also allow for rapid intensification if all other conditions are favorable.
CIMSS OHC MAP

NOAA AOML OCH MAP

ECMWF 120 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS




IF these conditions come to fruition and the system continues to develop a solid core closed low, and becomes aligned vertically, I would expect to begin to see a more steady rate of organization and intensification, If the forecast conditions improve as shown, by around 72 through 120 hours in the period, I feel that a brief period of R.I. will occur, and Melissa could now possibly become a major hurricane.  However, keep in mind, the forecast conditions are going to have to occur EXACTLY as forecast, and Melissa WILL have to become aligned vertically…no exceptions.  At the moment, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

Forecast path has come somewhat into better agreement, but should still be monitored until steering currents become stronger again.  Right now, Melissa is in very weak steering currents due to the orientation of the ridge to the west, and the very weak troughing to her north.  As the current rough / ridge forecast pattern progresses, we should have a better idea of motion, which again will all depend on the intensity of Melissa and strength and orientation of the pattern.  Based on analysis of the more accurate guidance models, and consistency of these models, I concur with the NHC forecast track, and I prefer the TVCA consensus aid at the moment.  This IS NOT set in stone however, but appears to be the best solution at the moment
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK

HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS




ECMWF, ECMWF A.I., GFS AND CMC MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST ANIMATION 12 – 168 HOURS




I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 96 – 120 hours. 

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS