Tropical Storm Pena is no longer expected to become a hurricane. At 5 p.m. HST Sunday, Nov. 8, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) placed Pena near latitude 11.4 north, longitude 157.6 west, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, moving west at about 8 mph, according to its forecast advisory. A follow-up advisory at 11 p.m. HST showed Pena still moving west with no change in strength.

There are no coastal watches or warnings for Hawaii. At that 5 p.m. update, the storm sat roughly 540 miles south-southwest of South Point on the Big Island, and the latest forecasts keep it moving west, well south of the island chain, through midweek.

That marks a clear downgrade in expectations — and a quieter week for the islands. On Saturday, Nov. 7, Pena had briefly reached 60 mph, and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported forecasters expected it to become a minimal hurricane with 75 mph winds by Wednesday, far southwest of the islands.

A Lopsided Storm That Could Not Organize

Pena's short life shows how quickly forecasts can shift. The storm formed Friday, Nov. 6, far southeast of the Big Island, and CPHC issued its first advisory at 11 a.m. HST that day.

The change came overnight Saturday. CPHC forecaster Papin wrote in the 11 p.m. HST discussion that satellite wind data showed an elongated low-level circulation with peak winds of only about 36 mph (31 knots), and lowered the storm's intensity to 45 mph.

The problem was structure. A healthy hurricane stacks its spin vertically, like a column. Pena's low-level center was racing ahead of its mid-level spin, a tilt that kept it from using otherwise favorable conditions, including sea surface temperatures near 84 degrees Fahrenheit (29 degrees Celsius) and modest wind shear. "Needless to say, this is a low confidence intensity forecast," Papin wrote.

The next discussion, issued at 5 a.m. HST Sunday, held winds at 45 mph and called for only gradual strengthening, peaking near 60 mph around midweek. It noted some models show Pena weakening into an open trough, and said: "there is lower than normal confidence in the intensity forecast." The Star-Advertiser reported Sunday that CPHC no longer expected Pena to reach hurricane strength early this week.

Gusty Trades, Not Storm Rain, for the Islands

The reason Pena stays south is a ridge of high pressure parked north of Hawaii. National Weather Service forecasters said that ridge "will remain locked in place for the foreseeable future," steering Pena "in a westerly direction, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands."

The ridge and the storm together squeeze the pressure gradient over the state. The NWS in Honolulu expected breezy, gusty trade winds into Monday, easing Tuesday before strengthening again in the second half of the week, the Star-Advertiser reported. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas.

Rain from Pena itself is not expected. The NWS said the system is "likely to pass too far south to bring rain to the islands," The Garden Island reported. Boaters should note that a small craft advisory had covered Hawaiian waters over the weekend because of the strong trades. A high surf advisory also covered north- and west-facing shores of several islands, and beachgoers should check current ocean conditions with lifeguards and the NWS before entering the water.

A Late Storm in a Season That Has Already Hit Hawaii Hard

A November tropical storm in the Central Pacific is uncommon, and this season has given residents reason to watch closely. In August, Hurricane Lala skirted the Big Island as a Category 1 storm without making landfall, yet its rain and wind swept around 100 homes off their foundations, the Associated Press reported. More than 250,000 Hawaiian Electric customers lost power at the peak, and the utility warned some rural outages could last months. Lowell later damaged Kauai, and Nolo flooded parts of the Big Island in late September.

The busy season fits the pattern NOAA predicted. Its May outlook called for 5 to 13 tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific, where a near-normal season brings 4 or 5. A strong El Niño has warmed the tropical Pacific and reduced the wind shear that normally tears storms apart there, helping the combined Eastern and Central Pacific set a record for accumulated cyclone energy in October. Forecasters told the Star-Advertiser that warm waters could even extend storm activity beyond the season's official Nov. 30 end.

El Niño tilts the odds toward a more active season but does not cause any individual storm. Pena's struggles are a reminder that warm water alone does not guarantee a strong hurricane, since structure and shear still decide each storm's fate. A storm needs sustained winds of at least 74 mph to be classified as a hurricane, and Pena has stayed well short of that mark since Saturday night.

Hawaii Households Can Stand Easy, but Not Stand Down

No action is required for Pena — the storm poses no threat to land. Residents should still keep hurricane kits stocked through Nov. 30, secure loose outdoor items during gusty trade wind days, and follow CPHC and NWS Honolulu updates, which are issued every six hours at 5 and 11 a.m. and p.m. HST.

The forecast beyond midweek is uncertain. CPHC's earlier discussion expected the steering ridge to shift east late in the week, turning Pena northwest over open ocean far from the main islands and bringing it near the International Date Line by Friday. Nature World News will report any change in the storm's track or strength that affects Hawaii.

What Readers Want to Know

Where is Tropical Storm Pena? As of 5 p.m. HST Sunday, Nov. 8, it was near 11.4 north, 157.6 west, roughly 540 miles south-southwest of South Point, moving west at about 8 mph with 45 mph winds.

Will Pena become a hurricane? Forecasters no longer expect it to. CPHC's recent forecasts peak Pena near 60 mph, below the 74 mph hurricane threshold, with low confidence.

Is Hawaii under any watch or warning? No. There are no coastal watches or warnings, and Pena is expected to stay well south of the islands.

Will Pena bring rain to Hawaii? The NWS said it is likely to pass too far south to bring rain. Its main local effect is gusty trade winds.

Why has the Central Pacific been so active? A strong El Niño has warmed the Pacific and lowered wind shear, favoring more storms, though it does not cause any single storm.

When does hurricane season end? The Central Pacific season officially ends Nov. 30, though forecasters say warm waters could support storms after that.