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PROTECT YOUR DNA WITH QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY
Orgo-Life the new way to the future Advertising by AdpathwayDisclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
Good day everyone!
This is long and graphics intense.
If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.
The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES : 3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1 – 2
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP 
The NHC issuing advisories on HURRICANE Isaias
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)
The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE
The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS
72 – 120 HOURS
As of the 15Z (11:00 a.m.) NHC advisory, the following information was available on HURRICANE ISAIAS:
11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 08
Location: 23.7°N; 90.2W
Moving: ENE 10 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb / 28.79 in.
Max sustained: 85 mph
PLEASE FOLLOW STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM YOUR LOCAL NWS OFFICE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Steinhatchee River
eastward to the Suwannee River, Florida.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River
* Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS
* East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Suwannee River to Yankeetown
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/081456.shtml?
ADVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT4+shtml/081458.shtml?
LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls_at4+shtml/081542.shtml?
The following is hurricane preparation information:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/09/04/hurricane-preparedness-information-guide-issued-sep-04-2026-1235-p-m-est/
Satellite loop imagery indicates the system continues to become slowly better organized
HURRICANE ISAIAS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Based on information in the NHC advisory, the system was moving ENE at 10 MPH. Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps and current guidance which is now pretty much clustered, this motion should continue for approximately the next 24 – 36 hours prior to making a more northerly turn. Based on this, I currently agree with the NHC forecast track.
12Z RAL ISAIAS EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE
ATCF AND NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
NHC FORECAST TRACK
ISAIAS did go through the brief R.I. (Rapid Intensification) period I had mentioned in yesterdays forecast, where sustained winds increased by 35 kts in 24 hours, and a drop in central pressure of 25 mb during that time. This occurred from 5:00 a.m. yesterday to 5:00 a.m. this morning.
Based on analysis of the ECMWF, ISAIAS is forecast to remain under the affect of the right rear entrance region of the 200 mb jetstreak for at least the next 24 hours. Wind shear based on the SHIPS diagnostic could reduce slightly over the next 12 hours, however both the ECMWF and SHIPS indicate an increase in wind shear by 18 – 24 hours. The ECMWF still indicates a decent outflow pattern to exist close to landfall. The current CIMSS analysis indicates shear over the hurricane, however, there is strong outflow over the system based on the recent upper level wind map. This outflow is producing some strong divergence aloft. Surface moisture based on PWAT analysis, is forecast to remain very favorable until ISAIAS makes landfall. Mid level moisture based on analysis of the 700 – 500 mb RH charts is favorable, however at around 24 hours in the period, dry air is forecast to intrude at 500 mb, and finally penetrate the core shortly thereafter. Based on my analysis, in the NHC forecast discussion, another brief RI could be slightly possible, however steady intensification may be more likely. I am interested however, to see what happens when ISAIAS hits the patch of higher OHC prior to landfall. Based on this analysis, I have to agree with the current NHC forecast intensity of ISAIAS becoming a top end CATEGORY 2 hurricane prior to landfall, and then begin to weaken as the unfavorable conditions take over.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR
UPPER LEVEL WINDS
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CIMSS OHC
ADT WIND FIELD
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WARNING AREA OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY
NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INIT 08/1500Z 23.7N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 24.9N 89.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 27.1N 87.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 29.6N 87.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 32.3N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 34.6N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/1200Z 36.5N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/1200Z…DISSIPATED
KEY MESSAGES FROM NHC
The following are graphics from the NHC and from the HURRTRAK APP.
POTENTIAL RAINFALL
The following are storm surge estimate values from the SLOSH data program for ISAIAS making landfall as a CATEGORY 1 hurricane and as a CATEGORY 2 hurricane based on a forward speed of 15 mph, and at high tide and mean tide. Values are plus or minus 20% depending on strength. So for instance, a flag of 6 feet let’s say, could have a range from 4.8 ft for the low end of the category, to 7.2 ft for the top end of the category.
ISAIAS SLOSH DISPLAY CAT 1 MEAN AND HIGH TIDE
CAT 2 MEAN AND HIGH TIDE
Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)
PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
The Mechanism: The right rear entrance region features an ageostrophic wind component that pulls air northward toward the jet core, creating massive horizontal divergence aloft. [1, 2]
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