Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system or severe weather). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10
TOTAL HURRICANES:        1
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


The NHC has lowered the probability of cyclone development to LOW (20%) for newly designated EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM INVEST 94L during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves. None were detected
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE (LINKED TO DISCUSSION)

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 3 – 7 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

120- 168 HOURS

INVEST 94L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


As of the 12Z (7:00 a.m.) ATCF BTK report, the following information was available:
7:00 AM EST Fri Nov 06
Location: 24.7°N; 65.2W
Moving: SE 8 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph

Based on analysis of the ATCF BTK report, INVEST 94L was moving toward the SE. Analysis of current forecast steering maps and MSLP animations indicates the system should follow the forecast guidance. In approximately 24 hours, we should see a motion more toward the east (in fact, satellite loop imagery indicates this may already be occurring). This easterly motion should continue and the system should have a quick trip across the Atlantic (Bon Voyage). I prefer the AEMI / AVNI guidance at the moment.
RAL 94L EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on analysis from CIMSS, SHIPS diagnostics, and the ECMWF model, the system remains under a sheared environment, with shear forecast to reduce slightly in approximately 48 hours for a very brief period, before increasing once again. The system currently has very weak lower level convergence and weak upper level divergence. Current surface moisture is marginal at best, as is 700 mb and 500 mb relative humidity values. By Monday, drier air is forecast to begin wrapping around the system, and the current cyclone phase thermal diagram suggests 94L will be transitioning to cold core. Given the fact INVEST 94L is still attached to a frontal boundary, and based on current forecast conditions, even though the NHC suggests this could take on sub-tropical characteristics, I believe the transition chance is pretty slim. However, given the baroclinic forces at work, the low could intensify to around 50 – 60 mph sustained winds. Commercial shipping should follow this closely. This system does not pose a threat to the U.S.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR

CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION THERMAL DIAGRAM

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 168 HOURS

Elsewhere, all 3 global models were in agreement of what appears to be a large, non-tropical area of low pressure forming close to the SEUS coast by day 7 into the forecast period. Being that this is the first run of model agreement, I will monitor this for continued agreement and consistency and will try to update on Monday.
ECMWF, GFS AND CMC MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST



Elsewhere, I do not expect tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.