I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 2
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin with a slight increase in moisture over a portion of the western African continent. A Tropical Wave is noted just exiting the African coast, with another east of it near 5.0W

The NHC indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated a tropical wave near 33W, 67W and 86W. I have added the wave just exiting Africa, and the one east of it.
06Z CIMSS TPW IMAGE.

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast is indicating a 70% probability of development near the NE / Mid Atlantic coast in 72 hours
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 72 – 192 HOURS
24 – 72 HOURS

Although this is being shown at the moment, Ensemble members have been on and off indicating low pressure developing most likely from a surface trough of low pressure forecast to become stationary near the area. However, the Global deterministic models do not show any organized low pressure in that vicinity at this time within that forecast period. While the ECMWF ENS. indicates low pressure, the ECMWF Global model (as well as the GFS and CMC) do not indicate development during the next 7 days. Wind shear IS forecast to become favorable, however surface to mid level moisture values will not be.
ECMWF ENS FORECAST


In addition, the MJO )Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain pretty much in PHASE 6 for pretty much the entire month. This phase does not favor development over the Atlantic and Caribbean, as there is a lack of ample moisture, and upper level divergence. However, close in development does sometime occur (as seen by the PHASE 6 observed analysis map, designated by orange and red) in the area designated by the cyclone formation probability. The most favorable phase of the MJO for homegrown / in close development is PHASE 8. Again, until I see more model consistency, and the deterministic models begin to indicate something, I am not looking for development at this time.
MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

PHASE 6 AND 7 OBSERVED CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CHART

Regarding possible Atlantic development also shown in non – consistency by Ensemble and AI modeling, PHASE 6 of the MJO is not a favorable phase. Based on analysis, wind shear across the Atlantic is above the climatological mean, and vertical instability is far below the climatological mean (meaning the atmosphere is very stable at the moment). The most favorable phases of the MJO for Atlantic development are PHASES 1, 2, and 3, with PHASE 2 and 3 being the most favorable.
ATLANTIC BASIN WIND SHEAR AND VERTICAL INSTABILITY LEVELS


Regardless, I will continue to monitor the situation during the next 72 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions.

I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.