I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. This synopsis is titled as SPECIAL, as the office is closed on the weekends.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, showing a vast amount of very dry air, even over the African continent, with the exception of a moisture plume exiting the west African coast which will most likely moisten the area for the wave forecast to exit the African coast next week. The wave forecast to exit the coast on Tuesday, appears to be the one located near 11.0N; 10.0E.

The NHC GTWO has designated a LOW (20%) probability for development of a non – tropical low during the next 7 days. Guess they’re bored.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)


The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 12Z this morning.
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast indicates a low probability for development of the wave currently near 30W. Currently, the ECMWF does not indicate development in this area, due to westerly wind shear and drier mid level air by 36 hours out in the forecast period. I will continue to monitor this for any significant changes to the forecast conditions. The probability area near 30N; 50W is associated with a low that is attached to a frontal boundary.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 72 – 96 HOURS


96 – 144 HOURS

Elsewhere, the 3 global models (ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ) continue to be consistent in indicating some type of development as a wave exits the African coastline next by Tuesday. The models show a slight variance in when the wave begins development, however the ECMWF over the past 3 days has been the most consistent. Based on analysis of initial conditions when the wave enters the ocean, surface to mid level moisture, including the 500 mb level, is forecast to be very favorable, as well as the presence of a radial shear pattern over the wave. This pattern means there is no zonal shear present to disrupt any circulation trying to develop. The analysis of the 200 mb streamline forecast indicates initial upper divergence will be weak. However, as the wave or low reaches the central Atlantic, upper level high pressure at 200 mb is forecast to develop, which would bring a more favorable divergent pattern over the area. This would have the tendency to “offset” any shear somewhat. One factor that could slow down development, along with Ocean Heat Content being below 50 KJ/cm2 until 50W longitude, would be intermittent dry air intrusion at 500 mb. The forecast however does not show the dry air entering the core at this time. Based on the analysis of the other very favorable conditions supposedly remaining with this wave past days 5 – 7, and IF these forecast conditions are accurate, we could very well see slow development next week. The model also keeps favorable conditions with the area past day 10. I will reiterate, that model accuracy reduces greatly past day 5 in a forecast period, and forecast conditions will need to be re-analyzed.

I will continue to monitor this area closely during the next 7 days.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 144 HOURS

This more favorable environment will most likely be attributed to the MJO progressing briefly into phase 8. Although phase 8 is a little more favorable for development off the SEUS coast and the Gulf, the suggestion from the CHI200 anomalies forecast indicates some weak upward motion at 200 mb over the probability area at the initial time of the wave exiting Africa.
MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES MAP 144 HOURS

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 168 HOURS

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days. Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.