I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good afternoon everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system, or a severe weather threat of a SLIGHT risk or above).

Regarding Tropical Weather Outlook issuance and Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical system will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:       1 – 2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Analysis of GOES satellite loop imagery indicates a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf, which is the beginning of weak low pressure area, which is now in the forecast per the NHC. The following is from the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion: For the forecast, pressure is falling over the central Gulf along the trough, and low pressure weak may form later today near 26N90W even as the front dissipates. This will enhance the strong winds and rough seas over the north-central Gulf this afternoon and evening.

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR SATELLITE LOOP

GOES 19 GULF IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

GOES 19 GULF VISIBLE LOOP

The NHC does not indicate any development during the next 7 days
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast has dropped the probability for development from the 00Z run during the next 24 – 72 hours.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

All three global models are in agreement of lowering MSLP in the Gulf within the next 24 – 36 hours, with the ECMWF being consistent for the past 3 days, and developing a weak 1012 mb (29.88 in) low.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST (60 HOURS)

Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, mid level moisture, and surface moisture, most of the surface and mid level moisture is just east of the area, however it appears to consolidate closer the center of the low as it reaches the Louisiana coast. Wind shear is forecast to remain high. Based on this, I do not expect development of this area during the next 48 hours. However, the increase in moisture will allow for some isolated minor flooding over eastern Louisiana due to an increase in precipitation, and possible minor coastal flooding. Currently, the ECMWF indicates winds of around 25 – 30 mph close to or on the coast with gusts close to minimal tropical storm force.

The NWS has issued a COASTAL FLOOD advisory, HIGH SURF advisory, a SMALL CRAFT advisory, and RIP CURRENT statement for portions of the Louisiana coast. Please click the NWS WATCH / WARNING MAP further on in the forecast to access advisories.

ECMWF WIND SPEED AND GUSTS FORECAST


Seas could reach 7 – 9 ft near the immediate coast
ECMWF WAVE WATCH FORECAST

WPC 5 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTAL FORECAST

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER



NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

I usually as a rule, do not go out this far in the forecast, as accuracy drops quickly past 5 – 7 days.

The following does not mean definite development, and there is nothing be be alarmed about…this is just to give you a sense of awareness in case the model information is correct. This can and will most likely change numerous times over the next week.

However the modeling has been fairly consistent, hinting at possible development in the Gulf by mid month. Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate (at various locations and intensities) a possible tropical system beginning in approximately 10 days.

The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probability has been slowly increasing probabilities, and currently indicates a 20% probability at days 7 – 9, and a 35% probability at days 8 – 10. Again, while this is somewhat far out, the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to enter PHASE 1 by this time, and slow its forward motion, which would have the tendency to reduce wind shear.
ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS


ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY DAY 7 – 9

DAY 8 – 10

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.