I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system, or a severe weather threat of a SLIGHT risk or above).

Regarding Tropical Weather Outlook issuance and Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical system will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:       1 – 2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred
GOES 19 IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

A mid to upper level low was noted in water vapor imagery over the Gulf
GOES 19 WATER VAPOR LOOP

NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Based on the NHC 12Z Surface Analysis map, Tropical Waves were located near 54W and 71W longitude. Black lines represent the axis of a wave.
CIMSS 12Z PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE

Current SST’s are warm enough in the Caribbean, Gulf and Gulfstream to sustain development. The minimum SST for tropical development is 26.5C or 80F (79.7)
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

The ECMWF MJO and ACCESS-S2 phase space diagram models forecast shows the MJO entering PHASE 8 by the beginning of June, going into PHASE 1 by mid June. The ECMWF indicates a majority of the members entering PHASE 8 within 10 – 15 days. I will be using the ACCESS-S2 model. Based on past research, the ACCESS-S2 is supposed to be fairly accurate with the MJO forecast. The JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast currently indicates upward motion (BLUE COLOR) over the Pacific, eastward into the Atlantic, including the Caribbean sea and the Gulf up from May 30 – June 05. Upward motion from the MJO can be favorable for tropical development as it can promote divergence aloft. To save space, the CHI200 forecast maps will be posted for the one week forecast period only.

CURRENT ACCESS-S2 MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

JMA CH1200 ANOMALIES FORECAST (30 MAY – JUN 05)

ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES MEAN 30 MAY – 06 JUN.

The following Tropical Storm Density anomaly map indicates the impact of the MJO for tropical development in PHASE 8 and 1. The map is based on actual observations (orange and red) and indicates the most likely areas to experience development.

TROPICAL STORM DENSITY MAP

The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability indicates a 10% probability in the Gulf by JUN 04, and has become more focused on development in the EPAC, which indicates a 20% probability in 4 – 6 days. The ECMWF still indicates lowering MSLP in the Gulf between days 4 and 6 and the GFS does not indicate any lowering of MSLP as seen earlier. Wind shear is again forecast to remain high and unfavorable for development. Although surface and mid level moisture is very favorable, it is located east of the center of the “low”. The increased moisture due to the southerly flow around this “low” should increase precipitation chances over Florida. Based on this analysis, I do not expect development in the Gulf during the next 5 – 7 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY (HOUR 96 – 144)


ECMWF AND GFS 156 HOUR MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST


ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER



I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days. I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.