Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       1
MAJOR HURRICANES:     1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC does not indicate any tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves. None were detected
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 – 6 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

96 – 144 HOURS

ECMWF EPS MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

JMA CH1200 ANOMALIES FORECAST WEEK 1, WEEK 2, WEEK 3 & 4

Based on my analysis this morning, as shown above, there is no change in the MJO forecast, and the updated JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast, as well as the ECMWF EPS, indicate a favorable MJO phase for the remainder of the month, into the first week of November.

Analysis of the 3 global models this morning indicate model consistency of an area of low pressure developing anywhere from near Bermuda, to just off the SEUS coast in approximately 5 – 6 days in the forecast period. Based on what I have seen in my analysis of the ECMWF, the low develops from a trough split, with limited surface moisture based on PWAT (Precipitable WATer) analysis, but favorable relative humidity levels at the 700 – 500 mb level, initially. This area will initially be under high wind shear. However, about 24 hours into the period should this low develop, the shear is forecast to be replaced with a favorable radial shear pattern, along with another possible upper level outflow pattern based on positioning of a possible right rear entrance region of the jetstream. Based on analysis of the surface wind pattern forecast, should development occur, this may start as a baroclinic or sub-tropical system, and could become fully tropical based on tightening of the surface wind field, with maximum sustained winds becoming just around the circulation center. This is what the models are presenting, and will remain to be seen.

Again, this is NOT DEFINITE, and forecast conditions can change, however I am seeing more consistency in the models, with ensemble members and AI modeling “sniffing” this out.

I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 5 – 7 days.
GFS, AND CMC MSLP FORECAST MAPS


ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 168 HOURS


Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.