I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

The SPC indicates an ENHANCED risk for severe weather today. Please refer to the link above for severe weather updates, or click on the graphic for access:
DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK


STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:         5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 0
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Analysis of GOES satellite loop imagery indicates a weak area of low pressure in the BOC. Thunderstorms this afternoon have become just a little more concentrated around the center of the broad low.
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

YUCATAN SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

Based on the NHC 06Z surface analysis, Tropical Waves were located near 19W, 34W, 53W, and 79W Longitude as shown in the 06Z TPW (Total Precipitable Water) image.
CIMSS 06Z TPW

NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC still has a LOW (20%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast is now indicating 80% probability for development between 24 – 72 hours out from the 00Z run.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

Analysis of the global models indicates the low pressure could attain a 1008 mb pressure by early this evening. Based on current and forecast low level steering (700 – 850 mb layer), and information contained in the NHC Outlook, the low could cross into Mexico, possibility just south of the Texas border, by Sun. On Tue., the low level mean steering is forecast to change to a NNE direction, and could allow for this to re-emerge into the Gulf on Tue. – Wed. and affect the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. In addition, this feature is forecast to merge with an approaching cold front. The increase in moisture from this feature will also increase precipitation totals inland over portions of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The NWS in Brownsville has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory, Small Craft Advisory, Rip Current Statement, and Coastal Flood Statement which my be accessed by clicking on the following map:

Models indicate at the moment that this system has only until only around early to late evening to become better organized and intensify slightly before wind shear increases. There has been a slight change to the upper level forecast in that by the timeframe I just mentioned, 200 mb winds change to a favorable divergent pattern, and a reduction in shear is still forecast with a developing radial pattern. While at the moment, given the lack of organization, I do not feel at this time the low will attain Tropical Depression status, though given the change in the shear and upper level pattern, the probability still exists even though it remains slim.

Given that surface to mid level moisture is forecast to remain extremely favorable, I will be excluding those graphics. The following indicate the favorable conditions just before the low crosses into Mexico:

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 21Z JUN 13

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST


CURRENT AND FORECAST STEERING LAYERS FORECAST


BROWNSVILLE RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PROBABILITY (LINKED)

ECMWF PRECIPITATION TOTAL 7 DAY FORECAST

WPC 7 DAY QPF

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.