Good day evening everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       1
MAJOR HURRICANES:     1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC has indicated a MEDIUM (40%) probability of tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days for the area of low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves. None were detected
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 – 6 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

EAST COAST SATELLITE LOOP


There has been no change to the MJO phase space forecast or CHI200 anomalies forecast other than CHI200 anomalies forecast maps indicate upper divergence over the Gulf and Caribbean begins to weaken during the 1st week of Nov. The MJO phase space diagram indicates we remain in a strong phase 2 and 3 which favors development in the above mentioned areas, as well as off the SEUS.

Based on my analysis this morning, the non tropical low off the east coast is centered approximately near 33.3N;71.2W. This places the low over the Gulfstream.

Based on my analysis of the ECMWF model 850 mb – 500 mb temperature charts, and Cyclone Phase Evolution thermal diagram forecasts, this low appears to be transitioning to weak, shallow warm core. The system is currently under 35 – 40 kts of wind shear. In approximately 48 hours based on the ECMWF, shear is forecast to relax directly over the low, and given the forecast of this becoming a shallow warm core, this system may try to transition to a sub-tropical storm should it break away from the frontal boundary. In order for this to occur however, the forecast conditions analyzed would have to materialize “exactly” as forecast. Regardless, residents along the coastal areas should remain away from the beaches, and small craft should remain in port. I HIGHLY recommend using the NWS Hazards and Warning map at the end of this forecast, as the NWS has issued various watches, warnings and advisories.
CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION THERMAL DIAGRAM FORECAST (ECMWF)

Models indicate this system should remain offshore. However, given the forecast of seas approaching 10 – 14 ft near the coast, and individual wave heights offshore of 25 – 40 ft, as well as the fetch, residents along the coast should be aware of coastal flooding and possible beach erosion.

This system should meander around off the coast for approximately 48 hours before moving out toward the NE.

I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 5 – 7 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES (120 HOURS), SURFACE WIND, GUSTS, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST AND MAXIMUM INDIVIDUAL WAVE HEIGHT (96 HOURS)





Global models are indicating the lowering of MSLP anomalies near the Bahamas within the 5 – 7 day forecast period. I’ll be monitoring this area for any development.
ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST



Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.