Good evening everyone!

The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 01.

Regarding Tropical Weather Outlook issuance and Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical system will take precedence. 

STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:       1 – 2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Based on analysis this afternoon, the ECMWF EXTENDED weeklies indicate a 7 day mean of lowering MSLP in the Gulf. The ECMWF and GFS models continue to indicate lowering MSLP anomalies OOA the end of the month through the first week of June IVO the Gulf, with the ECMWF indicating a weak low developing off the Mid Atlantic region, then a large low forming in the Gulf. The GFS indicates lowering MSLP anomalies in the Gulf, and develops an area of low pressure near Cuba, and sends it NEWD. It is noted that the models are becoming a little more consistent at this pattern, however it does not necessarily mean development will occur.
ECMWF EXT. AVERAGE WEEKLY, ECMWF, AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST




Current SST’s are warm enough in the Gulf to sustain development. The minimum SST for tropical development is 26.5C or 80F (79.7)
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

The ECMWF MJO and ACCESS-S2 phase space models forecast shows the MJO entering PHASE 8 by the end of the month, into the first week of June, with the JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast indicating upward motion (BLUE COLOR) in the Gulf in it’s week 2, as well as the week 3 and 4 forecast, and the ECMWF EPS CHI200 MEAN from 28 May through 07 June.

CURRENT MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

JMA CH1200 ANOMALIES FORECAST (30 MAY – JUN 05)

JUN 06 – JUN 19

ECMWF ENS CH1200 ANOMALIES MEAN 28 MAY – 02 JUN.

ECMWF ENS CHI200 ANOMALIES MEAN 02 JUN. – 07 JUN.

The following Tropical Storm Density anomaly map indicates the impact of the MJO for tropical development in PHASE 8 and 1. The map is based on actual observations (orange and red) and indicates the most likely areas to experience development.

TROPICAL STORM DENSITY MAP


Even though the ECMWF EPS cyclone probability is now indicating a low probability of development, some unfavorable wind shear will be in place over the Gulf for the last week of this month, as well as a fairly dry atmosphere from the surface up to the mid levels. As we get into the first week of June, conditions improve slightly however, I believe not enough to allow for development. IF anything were to develop, it would most likely be sub-tropical in nature given the wind shear.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY JUN 02.

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER



Though the maps are pushing the limits of my forecast boundaries (5 – 7 days), they have been a little more persistent during the past 48 hours. I am not expecting Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.