Good day everyone!

The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 01. I am transitioning the forecasts beginning today, to Tropical Weather. Severe Weather forecasts will still be issued, however will be based on a SLIGHT risk or above category.

Regarding Tropical Weather Outlook issuance and Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical system will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:       1 – 2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 IR SATELLITE LOOP

NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Based on the NHC 06Z Surface Analysis map, Tropical Waves were located near 34W and 66W longitude. Black lines represent the axis of a wave.
CIMSS 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE

Based on analysis this afternoon, the ECMWF EXTENDED weeklies indicate a 7 day mean of lowering MSLP in the Gulf. The ECMWF and GFS models continue to indicate lowering MSLP anomalies OOA the end of the month through the first week of June IVO the Gulf. The ECMWF and GFS indicate a weak low developing off the Mid Atlantic / SEUS region with the GFS pulling the low up from near SE Florida, and the ECMWF showing a weaker low originating off the SEUS coast. It is noted that the models have become a little more consistent at this pattern, however it does not necessarily mean development will occur. Although TPW values have become a little more favorable, and mid level relative humidity is forecast to be at the threshold of 65+%, wind shear is forecast to remain high over the region. IF anything were to develop, it would most likely be subtropical in nature.
ECMWF EXT. AVERAGE WEEKLY AND ECMWF, AND GFS 168 HOUR MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST

Current SST’s are warm enough in the Gulf and Gulfstream to sustain development. The minimum SST for tropical development is 26.5C or 80F (79.7)
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

The ECMWF MJO and ACCESS-S2 phase space models forecast shows the MJO entering PHASE 8 by the end of the month, into the first week of June. Based on past research, the ACCESS-S2 is supposed to be fairly accurate with the MJO forecast. The JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast indicates upward motion (BLUE COLOR) in the Gulf in it’s week 2, as well as the week 3 and 4 forecast, and the ECMWF EPS CHI200 MEAN from 25 May through 09 June.

CURRENT MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

JMA CH1200 ANOMALIES FORECAST (30 MAY – JUN 05)

JUN 06 – JUN 19

ECMWF ENS CHI200 ANOMALIES MEAN 25 MAY – 30 MAY.

ECMWF ENS CHI200 ANOMALIES MEAN 30 MAY – 04 JUN.

ECMWF ENS CHI200 ANOMALIES MEAN 04 JUN. – 09 JUN.

The following Tropical Storm Density anomaly map indicates the impact of the MJO for tropical development in PHASE 8 and 1. The map is based on actual observations (orange and red) and indicates the most likely areas to experience development.

TROPICAL STORM DENSITY MAP

The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability is indicating a low probability of development off the U.S. east coast. Again, IF anything were to develop, it would most likely be sub-tropical in nature given the wind shear forecast.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY JUN 01.

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER



My forecast range is usually only out to 7 days maximum (168 hours) in the period. I am not going to post graphics as this is past that time frame, but wanted to mention this as the ECMWF and GFS have been fluctuating on slight location and strength differences, however have been fairly consistent over the past few days at showing lowering MSLP anomalies OOA 2 weeks from today. The GFS indicates lowering pressures over a portion of the Gulf, and the ECMWF now indicating a large,weak low pressure area in the southern Gulf. Analysis of the current 850 mb wind pattern indicates this could be due to the CAG (Central American Gyre) entering the Gulf. This most likely will change, and could even not appear in further runs, however I will continue to monitor this given the forecast of the MJO and consistent lowering MSLP anomalies from the ECMWF EXT. weeklies.

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.