Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 8
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:     0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC has issued a HIGH (70%) probability for cyclone development regarding the area in the Gulf during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

Update just in…this area has recently been designated INVEST 92L. Right now, guidance is unavailable due to it just being initialized. However, as of the 12Z (8:00 a.m.) ATCF BTK report, the following information was available:
8:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 05
Location: 22.0°N; 96.5W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM FORMATION PROBABILITY 144 HOURS

Analysis of ensembles and AI models indicate the strongest signals for the Gulf. Global models have now come into a little better agreement and consistency, but again, at different times in the forecast period.

Satellite loop imagery indicates a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche.
INVEST 92L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis this morning still indicates that strong SWLY wind shear will be over the Gulf from approximately mid Gulf, northward. However, what may allow development is, models, especially the ECMWF and ECMWF EPS currently indicate by the next 72 hours, a semi-radial to radial shear pattern is forecast to develop in the extreme southern portion of the Bay of Campeche. This is a favorable factor for development. Other factors in that forecast period are very favorable surface moisture based on PWAT (Precipitable water) analysis, and 700 – 500 mb relative humidity (RH) values. This may very well lead to slow development. I’ve noticed high shear being mentioned in some posts on social media as well. Will this be a factor? It most certainly could depending on the actual motion of anything that develops, especially if a system moves further north into it. However another factor in development and any subsequent intensification will depend again on actual positioning. Given the position and orientation of the subtropical jet, the low will be under the effect of the right rear entrance region, which favors development, given this is an area with upper level divergence. This divergence is shown in the current CHI200 anomaly forecast maps being fairly strong. This particular setup could shield the system from wind shear disrupting the core. The system however would have to remain in the southern most portion of the right rear entrance region. Current information from CIMSS indicated a radial shear pattern over the southern convection portion, and increasing divergence at 200 mb, with a well established upper level outflow pattern in place.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE

UPPER LEVEL WINDS

So, the bottom line here at the moment is, if forecast conditions over the next few days based on modeling are correct, we could very well see a tropical depression develop, and even possibly a tropical storm. Again, more will be known if and when we actually see development occur. The NHC appears to have tasked the Hurricane Hunters with a low level investigative mission for tomorrow. Again, a wait and see scenario.

Regardless, this could bring copious amounts of precipitation to portions of the Gulf coast states from Louisiana, eastward.
HURRICANE HUNTER PLAN OF THE DAY (CLICK LINK)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

WPC 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST

Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY, WIND SHEAR, PWAT, RH FORECAST




GFS 700 – 400 MB RH FORECAST

GFS, AND CMC MSLP FORECAST MAPS


ECMWF EPS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.