Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

Satellite loop imagery indicates about the same as yesterday over the Atlantic.
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


The NHC is now issuing advisories on T. D. SIX, SW of the Azores.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis was not available
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

As of the 15Z (11:00 a.m. EDT) advisory from the NHC, the following was available on T. D. SIX:
11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 19
Location: 32.6°N; 33.6°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in.
Max sustained: 35 mph
CLOSEUP IR, VIS AND WV LOOP TD SIX



Satellite imagery shows the INVEST to be fairly organized, with the convection slightly north of the center.

The depression was moving very slowly to the north, based on the current steering layer mean and past positioning. Analysis of forecast steering layers maps indicates the depression should continue slowly toward the N to NNE for the next 36 hours. Thereafter, ridging is forecast to build back north of the system, and the system should head toward the SW, making a small, clockwise semi loop. Based on my analysis, I agree with the NHC forecast track, and prefer the HWFI guidance track at the moment.
RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP

Analysis of the current wind shear map indicates shear velocity is not an issue. Although the upper flow has changed slightly, upper divergence was indicated to be low over the system. Even though this appears to be an issue directly over the system, on a larger scale, the depression is currently located within the Right Rear Entrance region of a 200 mb jetstreak, which may be providing a somewhat more favorable condition on a larger scale, and the recent thermal diagram indicates the depression continues to transition to a shallow warm core system. There has been an increase in surface moisture directly over the center, and although the SHIPS diagnostic report indicates low 700 – 500 mb RH, both the ECMWF and GFS are currently indicating favorable mid level moisture values. The low wind shear and forecast of favorable mid level moisture will be brief, and conditions are expected to become unfavorable for for further development within the next 24 – 36 hours. Based on this analysis, the probability is low, however IF the model forecast information is correct, I cannot rule out a brief, and I mean brief increase to tropical storm intensity. Based on this, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment, though I feel dissipation may occur a little sooner.
INIT 19/1500Z 32.6N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z…DISSIPATED

CIMSS TD SIX WIND SHEAR

CIMSS TD SIX TPW

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, based on the most recent MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) phase space diagram forecast, the MJO is now in PHASE 8 and is forecast to enter PHASES 1 and 2 within the next 10 – 20 days. and is verified by the JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast update. These are favorable phases for tropical development on our side of the world. The forecast indicates a slowing of forward speed of the MJO, with about 80% – 90% of the ensemble members now clustered in those phases, and indicating a stronger signal. Slow forward motion of the MJO aids in the reduction of wind shear. I know this sounds like a broken record, however we are beginning to see some model support for some increased activity in both probability forecasts and some agreement between the ECMWF and GFS global models, especially past day 7.
ACCESS – S2 MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

MJO PHASE 8 AND 1 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT (ORANGE / RED COLORING)

MJO PHASE 2 AND 3 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

I will be monitoring the area indicated off the U.S. east coast, as global models tend to indicate development by day 7 in the period of a closed low, however there is a slight difference in track direction, and this should become more accurate by next week.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.