Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 6
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:     0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

Satellite loop imagery indicates about the same as yesterday over the Atlantic, with dry air being the dominant feature.
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

As of the 15Z (11:00 a.m. EDT) advisory from the NHC, the following was available on T. S. FAY:
11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 21
Location: 33.3°N; 32.0°W
Moving: S at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53 in.
Max sustained: 50 mph
CLOSEUP IR, VIS AND WV LOOP T.S. FAY



Satellite imagery shows the center of FAY is exposed due to wind shear, with dry air now over the center

The system was moving very slowly to the south, based on the current steering layer mean and past positioning. Analysis of forecast steering layers maps indicates the depression should continue slowly toward the south and in about 24 hours, turn more to the SW. Based on my analysis, I agree with the NHC forecast track, and prefer the HWFI guidance track at the moment.
RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP

Analysis of the current wind shear map indicates shear wind shear has increased over FAY. I was a little perplexed on how FAY became better organized, and continued to intensify based on what the models showed in the forecast. Well, the “pattern” played out a little differently than shown.

The NHC had mentioned an approaching mid – upper level trough. When a tropical system is east of an upper level trough, it can intensify. While the CIMSS divergence maps did not indicate any optimal divergence, the ridging on the east side of the trough can provide what we term as an “outflow” channel, noted in the upper level wind map. Although not radial in nature, it will “exhaust” air away in the upper levels, allowing for more lower level inflow. FAY had been, and is still barely in the Right Rear Entrance region of a 200 mb jetstreak, which is favorable for upper level divergence. The baroclinic conditions surrounding the storm at a distance apparently aided in “trapping” very good moisture levels directly over the center of FAY. Based on analysis of an increase in forecast wind shear, and loss of favorable moisture, FAY should continue to weaken.

Based on this, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast:
INIT 21/1500Z 33.3N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 32.6N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 30.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 30.0N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z 29.4N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z 29.3N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z 29.3N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z…DISSIPATED

CIMSS FAY WIND SHEAR

CIMSS FAY TPW

CIMSS FAY UPPER LEVEL WINDS

ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE MAP

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 48 hours, however this will be my final update on FAY, unless any significant changes occur in forecast conditions.

Elsewhere, you’ve heard me explain during the past couple of weeks about the MJO forecast going into phases 8 and 1, and possibly 2, and mentioning an increase of development probabilities. The forecast remains the same, and now I’ll be monitoring an area off the U.S. NE coastal area.

The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation probability forecast is indicating a little bit of an increase over the next 5 days, and the ECMWF MSLP anomalies animation indicates development of a system which may affect the U.S. NE coastal area, and possible development off the coast of Africa.
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

MJO PHASE 8 AND 1 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT (ORANGE / RED COLORING)

MJO PHASE 2 AND 3 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

Analysis this morning of the ECMWF global model indicates development of a closed low off the U.S. east coast, close to the end of this week. Analysis of TPW (surface moisture), relative humidity values (700 mb – 500 mb), and wind shear forecast indicated limited surface moisture, but ample mid level moisture and wind shear over the system. Should this develop, it appears it may be more sub-tropical in nature, or even more inline as a baroclininc system like a Nor’easter. We will see, if and when this develops, what the actual conditions are.

The model at the moment indicates forecast surface winds of mid tropical storm intensity, and significant wave height along the coast on the order of around 10 – 14 ft.

I will continue to monitor the tropics over the next 5 – 7 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST

ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.