Good day evening!
I’ve been busy with car issues, and wife’s medical appointments.

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 8
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:     0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC is issuing advisories on T.S. HANNA
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

As of the 21Z (5:00 p.m. EDT) NHC advisory, the following was available on T.S. HANNA
5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 28
Location: 36.5°N; 48.7W
Moving: ESE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71 in.
Max sustained: 45 mph

Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, HANNA should continue toward the ESE for the next 24 hours, before beginning a turn more to the ENE. Based on this, I agree with the NHC forecast track and prefer the AEMI track in current guidance.
RAL 18Z HANNA TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP

Based on satellite imagery this morning, and the NHC discussion from 11:00 a.m., I once again disagree on naming this system, as convection had been displaced from the center or near the center, which is required to remain near or over the center for at least 12 hours. First thing this morning, it was still an INVEST, and all of a sudden by 11:00 a.m. it was a tropical storm. Nice try NHC. Current satellite imagery still indicates a sheared system.
HANNA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


From the NHC 11:00 a.m. discussion:
Recent scatterometer data shows that the disturbance that NHC has
been tracking over the central subtropical Atlantic has acquired a
well-defined surface circulation and center. Despite significant
westerly shear the system has maintained an area of deep convection
to the east of the center, and the scatterometer data revealed peak
winds of 35 to 40 kt to the southeast of the center.

Analysis of the current wind shear map indicates the system is currently under 25 – 30 kts of wind shear
CIMSS WIND SHEAR

Analysis of current TPW (surface moisture) products indicate marginally favorable surface moisture. Based on analysis of the ECMWF model, wind shear is forecast to remain over the system with dry air beginning to intrude in approximately 36 hours. Based on my analysis, I do not feel conditions will allow for any further intensification, and the system should become a remnant low within the next 72 hours. Since this does not pose a threat to the U.S. or Caribbean Sea, this will be my final post on HANNA.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 28/2100Z 36.5N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 35.5N 46.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 34.3N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 33.9N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 34.2N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 34.8N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z 36.0N 38.6W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1800Z…DISSIPATED

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

Once again, based on the current MJO forecast, and information contained in the CPC Global Tropical Hazards Outlook from 23 SEP., there still may be the slight probability of some type of development in the W. Caribbean or Gulf before everything is all said and done.
ECMWF EPS MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

Excerpt from the CPC Tropical Hazards Outlook:
Looking ahead, the majority of dynamical models favor an eastward propagating MJO over the Western Hemisphere, followed by a westward retreat of the signal closer to the western Pacific. The ECMWF, on the other hand, remains an interesting outlier, and instead favors a more progressive MJO that reaches the Indian Ocean at a moderate amplitude. A higher amplitude RMM signal favored over the Indian Ocean is potentially significant. Low RMM2 values have not been observed in months, and it possibly points to the secondary MJO signal attempting to become better separated from the dominant low frequency background state. This is supported in the lower-level zonal wind forecasts focused north of the equator, which depict a band of anomalous westerlies breaking through the low frequency footprint of enhanced trades centered approximately between 120W and 80W. This is expected to weaken the intense El Nino shearing regime over Mexico, Gulf of America, and parts of the Caribbean favorable for Tropical Cyclone (TC) development.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

Elsewhere, I do not expect tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.