Areas forecast to have wind probabilities. 

Cities we associate with Hurricane Season.

Being it's on the Texas Coast....

...there are lots of webcams.

Galveston shows steady waves...

...camera obviously wet from rain.

Stormy. 

Mike made a graphic this morning that really speaks to me, and so I am going with it and sharing my thoughts. Why do we look at the GFS and the EURO when there are so, so many others to mention? In a way they are two parts of this puzzle. They are like twins that shared a womb, but are not identical and yet they have the same gene pool. They look at the tropical mystery and come up with two possibile scenarios for the crime. We are in Prime Time for the 2026 Hurricane Season. It may not look like much, but we may not get much and this is close to land, close to populated areas and it's an important forecast. The NHC put up possible Tropical Storm strength in the discussion, and yet they have used the "regardless" word over and over to remind people reading it that regardless of getting a name this can and will deliver dangerous weather and flooding in an area where there is already flooding and that is the true meaning of  misery. 

Back to the Twins who are not identical, but have the same genes. 

The EURO has been strange this year so far. It's as if it's trying to show the GFS two can play at this game. Perhaps there's so much pressure with the new AI models breathing down it's back, but it's been acting like the GFS. It takes out the pink crayon coloring in the bottom half of Mississippi that dips it's big toe into the beautiful azure waters of the Gulf. On either side from SW to NE there are dabs of pink painted in to make a more balanced forecast. Suddenly the NHC aka Charlie Brown approaches the football and isn't sure if this is Lucy or Patty as it feels like a trick. And, yet it IS the EURO and for a long time it has been King. 

Next we have the ever popular GFS for those of us who like to use Xray Vision to look way down the tropical road. The GFS is the Queen of the Pink Crayon. (sounds like a song title, but I digress) The GFS draws a beautiful heart over the water near where the Sabine River meets the Gulf. The GFS rarely wants to hit Houston as much as New Orleans ...it definitely has a thing for Louisiana. It splashes fuchsia across Alabama just to show it's individualistic streak and includes the Florida Panhandle into the dangerous action where tornadoes are very likely to form and move their way inland across the coastal cities as they so often do. 

If I was a Mathematician and used my only my left brain I'd cut the difference, average it out and say the beautiful area in Mississippi is going to get slammed with weather as it usually does. Chasers race to Gulfport and Biloxi and those who know... know Hurricane House in Bay Saint Louis and wonder if Mother Nature is playing a trick on Josh. I'll give you weather my friend... but haha not a Hurricane, well not this time. Li'l mean and cunning but that would be kind of ironic. I mean how often does Mobile get hit by an eye? And, well no there is no eye so maybe this time? And, as always no matter where the center of a messy, early tropical system is in this part of the Gulf warnings go up for strong cells that produce tornadoes along the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

I have two parts of me, the right brain and the left brain and they are always debating. But what I really need is an EYE to be sure, or at least a cohesive, coherent center. But this is early June in an El Nino Year and this is probably the best we are going to get for a while. And the truth is .... REGARDLESS....this PTC One ...Wannabe Arthur is a huge weather maker. And, that is why we are all here. Yes, some of us like colorful crayons, but seriously we are here because we love, we study, we follow and chase weather in one way or the other. And, areas from Houston to the Florida Panhandle is where our attention is focused. Personally, I love New Iberia ...but that's me not PTC ONE... just saying.